543
FXUS63 KLBF 051744
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Dry and sunny conditions persist today and tomorrow, with
   the area under the influence of upper level high pressure.

-  Increasing moisture Friday brings the return of thunderstorm
   potential, with a threat for a few strong to severe storms
   Friday evening.

-  Thunderstorm potential persists into the weekend and early next
   week, though the threat for severe weather is unclear at
   this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Currently, clear skies prevail across the area, with light southwest
winds and temperatures in the upper 40s to 50s. Aloft, upper ridging
continues to amplify across the southwestern US, with rising heights
across the central Plains.

For today and tomorrow, the area will remain under the influence of
the aforementioned upper ridge, as it strengthens and anchors
over the Desert Southwest. Continued warm advection will push
highs back into the upper 80s to low 90s across southwest
Nebraska today, with lower 80s expected further north. Lesser
boundary layer moisture today should temper any threat for heat
concerns, even in areas that climb into the low 90s. The lower
temperatures across northern Nebraska are driven by a backdoor
cool front progged to drop into the area this afternoon, in
association with a deep surface low across northern Ontario.
Behind this backdoor cool front, stronger H7-h85 flow will
promote increasing gusts across northern Nebraska, with gusts
around 30 miles per hour this afternoon. Breezy conditions are
expected further south across western and southwest Nebraska as
well, though only around 20-25 miles per hour amid weaker low
level flow. By tonight, H5 heights will climb to above the 90th
percentile climo as the upper ridge continues to amplify.
However, the area remains post-frontal in the low levels and
this will keep highs "cooler" in the low to middle 80s.
Subsidence aloft amid continued height rises will keep skies
clear again through the day tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

By Friday, surface ridging will slide off to the east of the area,
with southerly flow strengthening in its wake. This leads to good
northward moisture return, with dewpoints climbing into the upper
50s to perhaps even the low 60s by Friday afternoon. Discrepancies
remain in ensemble/deterministic guidance with the placement of a
lee trough across western Nebraska, and this will help to drive the
placement of any severe weather. As for the severe threat, modestly
increasing instability and deep layer shear ahead of the lee trough
looks to be adequate to support updraft organization. Forecast
soundings suggest initial largely straight-line hodographs,
suggesting a threat for large hail. Additionally, high LCLs and
inverted-v low level thermodynamic profiles would support a
threat for damaging winds as well. Weak convergence along the
aforementioned surface trough should keep convection widely
isolated, and primarily driven off the high terrain of WY/CO. By
late evening, should any discrete convection remain, a modest
increasing southerly low level jet does lead to increasing low
level hodograph curvature, though confidence in any tornado
threat still remains low. At least some severe threat looks to
develop on Friday evening, though mesoscale details will need to
be resolved to determine the area of greatest threat.

Additional thunderstorm chances exist Saturday, though a cold front
is anticipated to push through the area during the afternoon and
timing difference remain in current guidance. This leads to low
confidence, with some guidance suggesting an early enough passage to
limit the bulk of any severe threat. Confidence wanes even further
as we head through the weekend and early next week, with some
ensemble/deterministic guidance suggesting this frontal boundary
will reach the Gulf of Mexico and scour moisture out of the deeper
moisture in its wake. Should this verify, lesser thunderstorm
chances will exist for at least a couple days, before moisture
begins to return to the High Plains into the middle and late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Aviation concerns will focus on gusty winds. A frontal boundary
continues to track south and east through the area. This
boundary has already cleared VTN but should clear LBF early in
the period, leading to a veering of winds in its wake. Gusts
subside this evening but should redevelop after sunrise on
Thursday with peak speeds around 25 knots, mainly for north
central Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...NMJ