091
FXUS63 KLBF 250520
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1220 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*Strong to severe storms possible Saturday

*Precipitation chances continue into Sunday, but should be dry
 for Memorial Day

*Additional precipitation chances by mid-week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

The remainder of the afternoon and evening will be dry,
then focus will turn on the next system moving in from  The main
concern in the short term will be thunderstorm development on
Saturday. Moisture returns back to the area with surface dew points
in the 40s and 50s. Did leave a little a slight chance for morning
convection across far northern Nebraska, capped it at 20%, where WAA
may help to get a sprinkles or light showers. Thunderstorm chances
increase heading into the afternoon hours as the low pressure system
moves east out of Colorado with a warm front advancing northward
from the south, with the triple point moving into northwest KS.
There will be a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday
late afternoon and evening, would generally say between 4pm and 9pm
for the greatest threat of severe potential. Severe threat should be
confined to southwest Nebraska and potentially into north central
Nebraska by the evening hours, although thunderstorms will be
possible across western Nebraska as well, the chance for severe
storms is less. With storms across southwestern and north central
Nebraska the environment will be favorable for an  isolated threat
of large hail and damaging winds as marginally steep lapse rates and
CAPE values around 1500 J/kg will be possible in the afternoon and
evening. There is also an isolated threat for a tornado across
southwest Nebraska, given the close proximity to the triple point.
Most of the strong or severe convection should be out of the area by
by late evening, however showers and thunderstorms will still remain
possible through the overnight hours.

As for Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout
the day, but the risk of severe weather is low. Temperatures will be
cooler with highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s across the
Sandhills into north central Nebraska, with low to mid 70s across
far southwestern Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Drier conditions are expected for Monday and Tuesday. An upper
level ridge builds in from the west, with disturbances coming
in later in the week bringing more chances for showers and
thunderstorms by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Low level wind shear will be developing before daybreak as a low
level jet becomes established across central Nebraska.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with light winds at the
surface through daybreak. There may be a few sprinkles around
from some mid clouds but probabilities are quite low so will
maintain dry conditions and amend if necessary. Winds will
become gusty as diurnal heating mixes the boundary layer
Saturday morning with gusts to 30kt at KLBF but a bit lower at
KVTN. Expect widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop late in the day and will use VCTS for a couple of hours
toward 00Z before returning to dry VFR conditions by the end of
the valid period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...MBS