187
FXUS63 KLBF 142112
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
412 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms are possible, mainly over north western into
  north central Nebraska this evening.

- Gusty southerly winds are expected Monday and Tuesday, however
  critical fire weather conditions are not expected.

- A weak cold front will bring potential for showers and
  thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- A stronger cold front arrives Friday night into Saturday with
  better potential for widespread widespread showers and
  thunderstorms across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Passage of a weak short wave generated some widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms early this afternoon that have exit
the region to the east. Move vigorous convection was able to
fire well off to our north across South Dakota. However despite
substantial instability across central and western Nebraska, a
strong convective cap is holding tight and keeping a lid on any
additional development. A dry line may encroach from the west
late this afternoon/early evening with enough lift to get a
storm or two going but confidence is low, though given the
substantial instability any storm will have potential for rapid
intensification. Any showers/storms diminish this evening with
dry conditions through the overnight period and some patchy fog
toward daybreak.

After any morning fog dissipates Sunday will be warm with
temperatures well into the 80s and some lower 90s near the SD
border. Despite instability we will once again be capped so
expect dry conditions through late afternoon. Heading into the
evening, another push of weak short wave energy nudging the dry
line east into the panhandle will trigger scattered
thunderstorms again, through the best potential for severe
storms will reside just off to our west where forcing will be
stronger and low level lapse rates will be steeper. Lingering
showers and storms will continue moving eastward to about the
Hwy 83 corridor through early Sunday night, then continue
diminishing as they move further eastward through the overnight
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The upper level pattern will be rather blocky as it is dominated
by split flow over the eastern US with a large northern stream
ridge undercut by the lingering remnant of Francine with a
closed low over the southeast. This will prevent an initial
deep low moving in from the Pacific coast from making much
eastward progress, forcing it northward through the Rockies and
into Canada as it fills through Wednesday. This will ramp up
the low level flow early next week with winds aloft moving into
the 97th percentile and EFI/SoT guidance showing a medium to
high confidence signal for windy conditions across central and
western Nebraska. Precipitable water values will also remain
generally at or above the 90th percentile in the deep persistent
southerly wind flow. Expect some widely scattered
showers/thunder late Monday/Monday night generally east of Hwy
83 as some short wave energy moves up over a persistent trof
over eastern Nebraska. However anticipate the best potential for
precipitation will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday with
ensemble guidance in good agreement in moving a weak front
eastward through central and western Nebraska. QPF plumes are
fairly well clustered around median values of 0.25 to 0.50
inches across much of the region though amounts trail off
heading south of I-80.

Another deep low will quickly follow as it moves from the west
coast on Wednesday, then gradually fills as it moves into the
southern Rockies through the end of the week. This will keep
unsettled conditions with potential for showers/thunderstorms
through the latter portion of the workweek, culminating in
passage of a strong cold front late Friday into Saturday. Will
be watching evolution of dynamics closely over the next several
days to assess potential for severe weather as the front moves
through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across
western and north central Nebraska. Otherwise VFR conditions can
be expected outside of any storm activity. Winds will south to
southeast at 10-20 kts this afternoon then 5-15 kts overnight
tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Taylor