Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
228 FXUS63 KLBF 092326 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 626 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * A slight risk (risk level 2 of 5) of severe weather is possible Monday afternoon and evening with large hail up to 1 inch in diameter and severe winds up to 65 mph as the primary threats. * Drier weather with a gradual warming trend is expected through mid- week with highs rising into the mid-90s by Wednesday and Thursday across southwest Nebraska. * Active weather returns late week (Friday and Saturday), however, the severe potential remains uncertain at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Upper level ridging will remain in place through Monday morning keeping conditions dry and mild. The ridge will begin to break down during the afternoon as a short wave trough moves over the High Plains. This trough will bring increased moisture and ample instability (CAPE values near 1500 J/kg) across the Panhandle and portions of north central Nebraska by late afternoon and into the evening. As a result, scattered thunderstorms will develop by 21Z and push eastward with some storms becoming severe with large hail and wind gusts up to 65 mph mainly west of US-83. As storms continue to move eastward through the evening, they will encounter a more stable environment prohibiting severe thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms are still possible along and east of the US-83 corridor before weakening to just showers with some embedded thunderstorms with heavy rainfall as the main threat. Showers completely push out of the area by sunrise Tuesday morning. A dry Tuesday is expected with plenty of sunshine allowing temperatures to return to the 80s across the entire region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Zonal flow will keep dry weather across the region through Friday morning with increasing temperatures into mid-week. Warm air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 22 to 29 C range will result in surface temperatures in the low to mid 90s south of I-80. Elsewhere, widespread temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will be observed. These temperatures will easily be in the 75 to 80 percentile for high temperatures. Confidence in reaching the low to mid 90s is therefore on the higher end. However, based on the latest trends would not be surprised to see these mid-week highs increase a few degrees more over the next few days as confidence continues to increase. At this time, no heat headlines are expected as heat indicies will top off in the mid to upper 90s. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts as things may change in the coming days. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives on Friday and Saturday as an upper level trough pushes off the Rockies into the Great Plains. While the severe risk remains uncertain at this time, there is the potential to see significant rainfall with this system. Latest model guidance suggests precipitation to begin on Friday evening continuing through Saturday evening. Probability of receiving at least a half inch of new QPF between Friday morning and Saturday night is in the 30 to 40 percentile range across portions of north central Nebraska, leading to increased confidence in getting some significant rainfall at the very least with this late week system. With increased clouds and continuing precipitation, temperatures will also return back into the 80s for Friday through the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR conditions expected to persist through this valid period. Any showers/storms this evening/tonight will remain well off to the north and west of TAF sites. Better potential for thunderstorms arrives late tomorrow but beyond the expiration of this TAF issuance so will maintain dry conditions through 00Z Tuesday. Winds will generally be light overnight with the axis of the developing low level jet becoming established far enough to our west to prohibit low level wind shear at TAF sites. However as the axis of stronger low level winds shifts eastward tomorrow, winds will become gusty after diurnal heating mixes the boundary layer. Expect southerly gusts above 25kt at KLBF and above 30kt at KVTN. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...MBS