208
FXUS63 KLBF 141738
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1238 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms are possible, mainly over north western into north
central Nebraska this afternoon and evening.

- Gusty southerly winds are expected Monday and Tuesday, however
relative humidity will be elevated enough to avoid critical fire
weather conditions.

- A cold front will bring an increased threat for precipitation
  Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a secondary threat for
  precipitation late next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had the remnants of
Francine over Memphis TN. North of this feature, high pressure
was located over southeastern portions of Ontario, just north of
Sault Ste. Marie Michigan. Ridging extended north of this
feature to southern portions of Hudson Bay. West of the high and
ridge, closed low pressure was noted over central Saskatchewan.
A trough extended south of this feature into northwestern South
Dakota. A secondary shortwave trough was noted over
southeastern Idaho. These features were embedded in a more broad
trough of low pressure which was located over the northwestern
CONUS and southwestern Canada. At the surface tonight, low
pressure was located over far western portions of the Oklahoma
Panhandle. A weaker low pressure was located over central South
Dakota. A weak frontal boundary extended from central South
Dakota into southwestern Nebraska. Overnight, this boundary had
begun to move west per the latest radar imagery. Dew points east
of this feature were higher with readings in the 50s. West of
the boundary, dew points were in the 30s. Skies were clear to
mostly clear overnight and 2 AM CT temperatures ranged from 45
degrees at Gordon to 66 degrees at Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The surface boundary will drift west this morning, stalling
over the central panhandle by midday. Immediately east of the
boundary, and thanks to southerly and southeasterly winds,
surface dew points will rise into the middle to upper 50s this
afternoon. By afternoon, a mid level disturbance will approach
western Nebraska from eastern Wyoming. With surface heating,
lapse rates will steepen across the western Sandhills into north
central Nebraska. The latest CAMS including the 00z HRRR, 06Z
RAP and the 3km NAM develop convection over northwestern
Nebraska late this afternoon and transition this east into the
early evening hours across northern Nebraska. As for the severe
threat with this convection, deep layer shear of 20 to 30 KTS is
present this afternoon with SB CAPES around 1500J/KG in the
panhandle, could support a strong storm or two, especially over
northwestern areas where there is a combination of steep lapse
rates, favorable CAPE and best deep layer shear. The threat for
storms should quickly diminish after sunset as the boundary
layer cools. Low level moisture will remain prevalent across the
area tonight, which will lead to lows in the middle 50s in the
west and lower 60s in the east. On Sunday, an upper level trough
will deepen across the western CONUS, this will lead to a
deepening surface trough of low pressure across eastern Wyoming
into eastern Colorado. East of this feature, southerly winds
will increase, forcing warmer air into southwestern and western
Nebraska. Highs on Sunday will run 2 to 5 degrees higher than
forecasted highs this afternoon. Readings will reach into the
upper 80s with some readings around 90 in the eastern panhandle
and northwestern areas, where slightly lower dew points are
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The west coast upper level trough will deepen Sunday night
along the California coast. A lead disturbance will approach the
high plains of eastern Colorado Sunday evening initiating
storms over eastern Colorado. This activity will lift into
western portions of the forecast area Sunday night. The latest
DESI probabilistic QPF forecast has around a 40 percent chance
for >0.10 inches of QPF Sunday night, generally west of highway
61. With this in mind, will favor the highest pops Sunday night
in western areas. The upper level trough of low pressure, will
remain entrenched across the western quarter of the CONUS into
next week. This will allow a persistent surface trough of low
pressure to remain off to the west of the area. The result will
be gusty southerly winds on Monday and Tuesday which is
supported by the latest EFI wind speed forecast both days.
Though not extreme by any means, this does indicate some decent
gusty winds both days. Would be concerned somewhat about
critical fire weather conditions both days, however low level
moisture will be prevalent across the area and will limit fire
weather concerns into midweek. By Tuesday night, a strong upper
level shortwave, will lift into the northern Rockies. This will
force a frontal boundary through the area, leading to an
increased threat for showers and thunderstorms. The upper level
trough of low pressure will remain across the western CONUS
through the end of the week. This will allow a persistent
surface trough to remain along the front ranges of Colorado and
Wyoming. The result will be continued southerly winds, above
normal temperatures, and a continued threat for precipitation
into the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across
western and north central Nebraska. Otherwise VFR conditions can
be expected outside of any storm activity. Winds will south to
southeast at 10-20 kts this afternoon then 5-15 kts overnight
tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Taylor