776
FXUS63 KLBF 101127
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
627 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper trough and weak cool front will support thunderstorm
  development late this afternoon and evening. The main area
  the of concern will be west of Springview through Imperial,
  with the primary threats isolated large hail and damaging wind
  gusts.

- An upper ridge building across the Desert Southwest Wednesday
  and Thursday will support very warm temperatures. Highs in
  the upper 90s are forecast across southwest Nebraska.

- An upper trough in the southwestern U.S. will approach and
  cross the region Friday and Saturday. This will bring the
  potential for strong thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Surface low pressure will deepen today across southeast Wyoming as
surface high pressure extends over the Upper Mississippi Valley.
This will tighten the surface pressure gradient across western
Nebraska with south winds of 15 to 30 mph.

A Pacific front will advance into western South Dakota and the
western panhandle late this afternoon as an upper trough advances
into the Northern Plains. Ahead of the front, highs will reach the
lower 80s and MUCAPEs from 1000-1500 J/kg will reside across the
western Sandhills near and west of Highway 61. Deep layer shear to
range from 25 to 30 kts. Fairly strong frontal forcing will be
present late this afternoon and early evening across the western
Sandhills, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The latest
convective allowing models (CAMs) show development across the
northwest Sandhills after 21Z with development into the central
Sandhills through mid evening. Storm coverage will be much more
limited across southwest Nebraska into eastern portions of north
central Nebraska, where frontal forcing will weaken mid evening and
overnight. Latest SPC Day 1 outlook shows a Marginal Risk for areas
west of Springview through Imperial, with a Slight Risk over the
northwest Sandhills west of Merriman through Lisco. Isolated large
hail and damaging winds are possible with the strongest storms.
Rainfall amounts should be limited to a tenth to a quarter inch
across the northwestern half of the forecast area, though local
amounts could exceed a half inch this evening.

Tuesday, the weak upper trough will move into the Upper Mississippi
Valley. Surface winds across western Nebraska will be light north to
northeast at only 5 to 10 mph. Skies will be sunny with high in the
mid 80s, except upper 80s far southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Upper ridging will build across the Desert Southwest Wednesday into
Thursday. This will bring very warm temperatures from 90 to 98
Wednesday and 85 to 98 Thursday. NBM 75th percentile supports highs
near 100 Wednesday and 99 to 103 Thursday across southwest Nebraska.

The capping inversion may be weak enough by late Wednesday afternoon
into the evening for a few strong thunderstorms to develop east of
Highway 83. MUCAPEs should exceed 3000 J/kg with deep layer shear of
35 to 45 kts. Development is very conditional and confidence remains
low on development.

Thunderstorms could also develop Thursday afternoon and evening as a
weak front drops southward during the day. This would favor develop
across the panhandle, southwest and central Nebraska. The potential
for severe weather remains uncertain at this time.

An upper trough across the southwestern U.S. will approach the area
on Friday and cross the region Saturday. This will bring the
potential for strong thunderstorms and at least locally heavy
rainfall both days. PWATs will reach near 1.25 inches or higher.
Details on timing and the amount of severe weather remains
uncertain at this time.

Highs will range in the 80s Friday and Saturday, warming slightly to
the 80s to low 90s Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all of western and
north central Nebraska today. Scattered thunderstorms will
develop across the Panhandle this afternoon then spread eastward
across the area this evening. Otherwise, south winds will
become gusty by late this morning. Winds will be erratic and
gusty in and near any thunderstorm activity this evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Taylor