352
FXUS64 KLCH 170501
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1201 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Little change is expected day to day for much of the short term
forecast. A weak boundary draped in a west-to-east fashion along
I-10 is in place today and will remain in place Tuesday before
washing out on Wednesday. Along this boundary, expect isolated
to widely scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms. Best
chances for convection will take place across Lower Acadiana (30
to 35 % PoPs) where there is pooling of low level moisture.

Northwest flow will develop overhead Wednesday, helping to wash
out this boundary and bring most rain chances to an end. Forecast
soundings also indicate the more efficient mixing down of dry air
to the surface, helping to further limit any surface convection.

Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to around 90/91F this
afternoon, which is a degree or two higher than expected. Thus,
with an expectation of similar conditions tomorrow, daytime high
temperatures were blended with the 12z GFS to bump them up
slightly from the NBM.
Highs will trend upwards slightly on Wednesday with the arrival
of northwest flow and slightly drier air. Daytime temps should top
out in the low 90s, but with lower moisture, it should at least
be a dry heat. There are no concerns of hitting Heat Advisory
criteria this week.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The long range portion of the forecast essential gets dominated by a
mid/upper-level ridge building over the region from TX/Old Mexico,
gradually settling directly overhead. Meanwhile, sfc ridging
initially centered over the lower MS Valley will gradually shift
ewd, but remain the dominant weather maker (or non-maker, in this
case) at the sfc. The result will be dry and warm conditions with
highs generally in the lower 90s (a cat or two above normal for late
September) and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s (near normal). Highs
do cool a degree or two by the end of the forecast period as the
ridge begins breaking down, with additional cloud cover helping
temper temps a bit).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Calm and VFR conditions ongoing with light winds and isolated
patchy fog across the area. Fog will be possible across most of
the terminals tonight, however widespread dense fog is not
expected. Whatever does form will be quick to burn off shortly
after sunrise. Going into the late morning and afternoon hours,
some isolated showers and storms are possible however confidence
in timing and location is low.
Stigger/87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  87  69  90 /  10  30   0  10
LCH  73  91  73  90 /  10  30   0  10
LFT  73  87  74  89 /  20  40   0  20
BPT  73  90  75  90 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...87