Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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069 FXUS64 KLCH 130356 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1056 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1008 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 High pressure ridging over the region and somewhat dry air moving in from the north have both worked together to bring about a very dry an clear night. Expect much of the same overnight into tomorrow morning. The inherited grids package is on track with latest observations and no updates were made. 11/Calhoun && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Wx map shows surface high pressure ridge extending from the Eastern U.S. to the Gulf coast giving our region east northeast winds. Weak nearly stationary frontal boundary near the coastline this afternoon with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s south of I-10, dropping off into the 60s along and north of I-10. Due to the dry air, afternoon temperatures have risen into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Radar showing isolated showers and a few thunderstorms along the South Central Louisiana coast this afternoon, not much elsewhere. Latest blended guidance shows not much more development inland, with most activity staying south of I-10 near the coast. Lowering chances of precipitation is expected tonight through Thursday night as the slightly drier air at the surface and aloft prevails. With the dry air in place, overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s north of I-10, upper 60s to near 70 elsewhere. Afternoon high temperatures in the lower 90s. Overnight lows Thursday night expected in the mid to upper 60s north of I-10, 70 to lower 70s further south. By Friday, the mid to upper level ridge over Mexico & Texas expected to begin building eastward, exhibiting more influence and subsidence over our region. As a result, afternoon high temperatures expected to rise into the mid to possibly upper 90s in a few locations. With the somewhat drier air remaining in place, expect maximum heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s. Little if any chances of precipitation inland, with only low chances of showers across the far offshore coastal waters. 08/DML && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) High pressure aloft will be centered over the lower Mississippi Valley and sliding east at the beginning of the weekend. Also at the beginning of the weekend, an inverted trough over the gulf will be headed west around the southern edge of the ridge. A drier airmass will still be in place to start Saturday, however moisture will increase through the weekend into early next week. PWATs are anticipated to be around 1.5" early Saturday and increase to around 2" by Sunday afternoon. Generally dry conditions with temperatures above climo norms can be anticipated Saturday with scattered to numerous showers possible Sunday. NHC has the southern gulf/Bay of Campeche highlighted for possible development from the weekend into early next. The upper ridge is expected to slip to the Atlantic coast driving the inverted trough toward the Mexico and Texas coasts. The forecast will be dependent on the eventual evolution of this inverted trough. Even if any development does or does not occur in the southern gulf, moisture is expected to increase into next week as the northern extent of the trough moves by. Multiple days of high rain chances can be anticipated for the local area Sunday into the middle of the coming week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A few isolated showers are lingering near BPT as well as clouds at about 5000 to 5500 ft along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. These showers should end in the next hours and shouldn`t be of any consequence to BPT. A boundary spanning from southeast Texas to the Gulf right off of Louisiana is the culprit behind these low clouds. The lower ceilings may hang around through early morning and BPT/ARA may experience some light ground fog due to rainfall from today. Forecaster confidence in fog development is very low and thus was not included in area TAFs. A brief period of MVFR ceilings is anticipated around and after sunrise, but as daytime heating and mixing take place, these clouds should lift and clear by afternoon. Otherwise, expect light, variable winds through the morning and a northeast wind during daytime hours. Winds along the coastline will turn to the south later in the day with the seabreeze boundary. Winds diminish with sundown once again. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Light east to northeast flow will prevail through Friday in the wake of a weak frontal boundary across the coastal waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of the boundary this evening and overnight, with diminishing chances Thursday and Friday. Precipitation chances increase significantly Sunday night through most of next week as moisture from the Southern Gulf of Mexico advances northward. Increasing onshore winds and seas can be expected during this period, with Small Craft Advisories possible. 08/DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 63 91 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 70 92 70 93 / 10 0 0 0 LFT 70 92 70 95 / 10 10 0 10 BPT 74 93 73 95 / 10 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...11