095
FXUS64 KLCH 032030
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
330 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off the
Carolina coast ridging wwd over the sern CONUS, maintaining a
moist srly low-level flow over the region. Water vapor imagery
shows weak ridging extending from nern Mexico and up through the
Sabine Valley trying to hold on while multiple disturbances riding
over try to break it down...the first of which has helped fire up
an MCS dropping ssewd from ern OK/wrn AR at the moment. Closer to
home, local 88Ds indicate diurnal convection has been slow to get
going today as a decent cap noted in the 12z KLCH sounding has
evidently been holding firm despite good warming.

Recent guidance is in agreement that the approaching MCS will
continue to do so into this evening...however the agreement
generally ends there as all sorts of solutions exist as far as
what shape the system will be in and where it will have the most
impact once in our area. Thereafter, there are hints in the
guidance that a 2nd complex could develop later tonight and move
into the forecast area prior to sunrise...blended guidance is
really having issues with latching on to this one, which is
evident in the first period POP/wx grids this afternoon. Perhaps
this is the feature that is being picked up dropping through the
area Tuesday morning into early afternoon, with minimal convection
expected the remainder of the day courtesy of a worked over
airmass. Stay tuned. Regardless of timing, SPC has included much
of the forecast area in at least a marginal risk for severe
weather through tomorrow with damaging wind gusts being the
primary threat. Likewise, WPC has included the same areas in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall through tomorrow given the
very wet grounds from multiple rounds of sometimes heavy precip
the last several days.

The mid-level ridge building over the area which has been
advertised since late last week and which was supposed to suppress
convection through much of this week has pretty much disappeared
from the medium range global models as of this afternoon...
replaced by a continued nwrly flow aloft containing periodic
passing disturbances. The first of which is now progged to cross
the area Wednesday and combining with reasonable moisture (mean RH
values again to near 60 percent and PWATs to around 1.7 inches),
yet another round of showers/storms are expected, peaking during
the afternoon hours with max heating.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The long term forecast is marked by uncertainty as models continue
to struggle over the synoptic pattern. On Thursday, a large stacked
low pressure system will be situated over the Great Lakes, while mid-
level ridging builds across the Rockies/Four Corners region. At the
surface, a cold front associated with the low pressure system will
be diving towards the Ark-La-Tex, while weak high pressure will be
to our east providing a light onshore flow across the CWA. Models
are at least in good agreement with moving the low pressure system
towards New England from late Thurs into early Sat however, it still
remains uncertain how this will impact the local area. Current
guidance wants to push the associated cold front all the way to the
coast by Sat morning, while previous runs hang the front up to our
north and/or wash it out completely. Regardless if the front does
make it through the CWA or not, its passage will be hardly
noticeable, with little more than a weak wind shift expected.

In addition, models continue to struggle with the evolution of the
western CONUS ridge towards the end of the week. Guidance is in
agreement with building the ridge eastward however, how far east it
actually builds will largely affect our weather pattern for the
later part of the forecast period. If ridging stays more to our west
and keeps us in a NWrly flow aloft we will continue to see daily
rain chances and potentially more rounds of severe weather. On the
other hand, if the ridge is able to build more directly overhead we
will trend towards a drier pattern.

With the lack of good agreement among guidance I opted to stick
closely with NBM, which paints small POPs each day with a trend
towards a drier pattern over the weekend. Temperature wise, highs
will be just slightly above normal for Thurs and Fri (in the low to
mid 90) before trending back towards seasonal norms (low 90s) Sat
and beyond. Overnight lows will generally rang from the low to mid
70s each night, with a few spots inland potentially reaching the
upper 60s.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Sfc obs/satellite imagery show scattered/broken cu developing
across the forecast area with ceilings generally in the VFR
category...any lower ceilings are expected to rise above 3K feet
with heating shortly. Thereafter, the main concern for the
afternoon is convection with popcorn storms likely develop to
develop...local 88Ds already show a few showers mainly over sern
TX which will intensify and spread in coverage through the day.
Going with our recent persistence in carrying convection through
the late evening/overnight hours for the ern terminals where MCSs
have been wreaking havoc during the normally quiet overnight hours
the last several days. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings are expected
overnight as abundant low-level moisture pools...ceilings will
again rise while srly winds pick up after daytime heating
commences.

25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Caution headlines have been introduced on the wrn/cntl coastal
waters as srly winds are progged to increase to criteria this
evening thanks to a tightening gradient courtesy of low pressure
moving into the srn Plains.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  89  73  91 /  20  30   0  40
LCH  77  87  77  89 /  10  20   0  20
LFT  77  89  77  91 /  10  20   0  20
BPT  77  89  77  91 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...25