636
FXUS64 KLCH 280755
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
255 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)

Wx map shows a weak pressure gradient across the area, with light
south winds along and south of the I-10 corridor, calm further
north. Aloft, a large mid to upper level ridge continues over
Mexico, South Texas, and the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, with a
broad trough over the Central U.S. Temperatures this morning
remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the mid
70s to near 80 across the area. The persistent smoke from Central
America that has spread northward across the Western Gulf of
Mexico and our region is keeping lower visibilities in the 2 to 5
mile range this morning, and likely will continue through
daybreak, with some slow improvement during the day.

For today, expect hot and humid conditions to continue. Afternoon
high temperatures expected to reach the lower to mid 90s, with
maximum heat index values or apparent temperatures ranging from
100 to 107 degrees. This is just below our heat advisory criteria,
thus will not be re-issuing at this time.

The other issue will be the increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms, around 20-30% over Louisiana, 30-40% over Southeast
Texas as a shortwave upper level disturbance within the northwest
flow aloft affects the region. Some of these thunderstorms could
possibly reach severe limits, with damaging winds the primary
weather threat. The Storm Prediction Center has the area from
Alexandria to Lake Charles westward in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of
5) for severe thunderstorms, and points eastward in a Marginal
Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Most of the
activity expected during the afternoon/early evening hours.

For tonight through Thursday night, expect the mid to upper level
trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. to gradually deepen,
eroding the mid to upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.
Expect the surface high pressure ridge over the Northern Gulf of
Mexico to keep moist south to southeast winds over the region.
The increased low level moisture, coupled with the periodic
disturbances within the northwest flow aloft, expected to bring
increased chances of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
Expect slightly lower morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
and daytime highs in the 80s due to the increased afternoon cloud
cover.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)

The long term forecast remains fairly consistent with ridging
building in the west and a surface high over the Great Lakes Region.
We will see a few disturbances track across the region during the
second half of the week, while at the same time a surface boundary
will meander across the region.  This set up will lead to an
interesting dynamic where the relative unstable pattern will be
competing against the stabilizing effect of the ridge. Each
afternoon will have the chance for showers and thunderstorms as
daytime heating will be needed to overcome capping and subsidence
aloft. During each afternoon PoPs will be in the 30 to 50% range.
However, if the ridge is stronger than forecasted or if high clouds
limit day time heating rain chances will drop.

The high pressure to our east will keep a consistent south flow into
the CWA. Dew points will remain stubbornly high in the mid 70s.
Temperatures will be a few degrees higher than typical for this time
of year with highs in the mid to upper 80s and low in the high 60s
to mid 70s. The heat index will peak around 95 each day.

14/Slaughter

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)

MVFR/IFR visibilities & ceilings expected this morning for
southern terminals, partially due to the ongoing smoke plume
across the Gulf of Mexico spreading northward across the area.
This will transition into haze later on this morning and afternoon,
gradually improving, but likely to pose lowering MVFR/IFR visibilities
& ceilings after 06z once again. Expect VCTS at all sites by 18z,
with the best chances of TSRA from 20-24z as indicated from the
tempo groups fro TSRA. Winds expected to remain light from the
south or variable 5 kts or less through the period.Will have

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure ridge across the Northern Gulf of Mexico
will result in a persistent, light onshore flow continuing well
into the weekend. Expect isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today through the end of the week.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  69  85  68 /  20  20  40  20
LCH  91  72  86  72 /  30  20  50  30
LFT  94  72  88  72 /  20  20  30  20
BPT  91  75  87  74 /  30  20  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...08