677
FXUS64 KLCH 230837
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
337 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

The region remains between an area of high pressure just off the
Atlantic coast and a cold front that stretches from West Texas to
the Great Lakes. This continues to provide a humid south flow off
the gulf. Aloft a ridge is centered over Mexico and stretches
north to the gulf coast. A pair of upper lows are moving across
the northern sections of the country within a larger trough over
most of the CONUS. Smaller upper disturbances are passing just
north of the area along the base of the larger trough.

Thunderstorms traversed North LA this past afternoon with a
passing upper disturbance. A few showers have worked into the
northern zones early this morning, however this convection is
expected to exit the region through the next few hours. With the
upper ridge continuing to influence the area`s wx, another hot and
humid and generally dry day is anticipated. A few light showers
can not be completely be ruled out during the afternoon as daytime
heating occurs, however the ridge will keep any convection
greatly limited.

Another disturbance may pass the region to the north this
afternoon with a few showers or storms potentially working into
the lakes region to Cen LA again this evening or tonight.

The upper ridge is expected to build north Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will gradually increase and rain chances will be
farther suppressed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Strong ridge of high pressure peaks late weekend into early next
with daytime highs in the middle 90s across the region. This will
yield heat indices 99-104 degrees Sunday and Monday. Heat indices
could reach 105 degrees on Monday as a frontal bndry approaches the
region.

Frontal bndry moves through Monday night into Tuesday dropping highs
back into the upper 80s and lower 90s. TDs will also lower a bit,
giving a short reprieve from the hot/humid conditions. As the front
slides across the area, isolated showers/storms will also be
possible. Thereafter, daytime highs stay in the upper 80s to lower
90s with a return of light onshore flow.


78

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)

Main issue tonight will be MVFR ceilings developing once again by
or shortly after 06z. The other issue will be this monster MCS
over Central Texas moving southeast at the present. Forecast to
greatly weaken by the time it reaches either Inland SE TX/C LA
later this evening. Did add VCTS for AEX from 05-07z. Southeast
winds around 10-15 kts with gusts near or over 20 kts should slowly
subside this evening, but expected to remain elevated overnight,
especially over the southern terminals. Borderline MVFR/VFR
ceilings expected after 15z Thursday, with increasing southerly
winds 12-16 kts with gusts 20-25 kts.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Moderate onshore flow is expected to prevail into the weekend as
a tightened pressure gradient between surface high pressure to the
east and a series of low pressure systems across the Plains
continues. Rain chances should remain low although an isolated
light shower or two cannot be ruled out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  72  93  72 /  10  30   0   0
LCH  88  75  88  75 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  90  76  91  77 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  89  76  90  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...08