825
FXUS64 KLCH 151502
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1002 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Still seeing some capping and dry air aloft and this should keep
any significant shower activity from developing today. Rain
chances look to increase by late tomorrow. Current forecast is on
track and no changes at this time.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Pleasant conditions this morning albeit a bit humid. We could see
patchy fog this morning in several areas around the CWA in a few
hours. Whatever fog forms will burn off shortly after sunrise.

Aloft we still have the ridge directly over head with a broad area
of high pressure over the region. Over the course of the period, we
will see those features move off to the east as an inverted trough
moves west. While the ridges influence will limit PoPs, it is not
out of the realm of possibility to see very isolated activity over
the day today.

Tonight and into Sunday morning will see a shift into a more active
period with multiday scattered to numerous PoPs and flooding
potential. With the departing ridge / incoming trough, we will see
significantly more moisture work its way into the area. In
comparison to days previous, the models are getting into better
alignment in regards to what we can expect over the short term. The
rich moisture plume will work its way into the area Sunday, with
PWATs quickly increasing to over 2 inches (Sun night) across the
eastern and southern parts of the CWA. That will be just the start
of it. More moisture will work its way into the area as the trough
begins to form into a closed off area of low pressure.

There is a Slight (lvl 2 of 4) to Marginal Risk (lvl 1 of 4) of
excessive rainfall from Sunday into the long term period. Keep in
mind that the potential for upgraded and or greater coverage in
flood threats will exist over this period.
Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Tropical moisture will peak at the beginning of the period across
the region as easterly wave works across the central Gulf of Mexico.
Guidance is less bullish on closing off a circulation with this
feature this morning. If it does close off in the SW Gulf, the
northern stream of deep moisture would become less than currently
forecast. As of now PW`s are forecast to get above 2.5 with rain
chances peaking on Tuesday with heavy rainfall possible across the
area, especially the southern half of the area.

Wednesday will continue to see a deep stream of tropical moisture
translating west more into Texas and by Thursday PW`s will drop back
to below 2 inches, however still plenty of moisture for scatter
showers and thunderstorms, with normal summertime diurnal trends
across the coastal water at night and moving inland during the day.

Friday will see the lowest rain chances through the period, however
another deep plume of tropical moisture will be on the way for
Saturday.

In addition to heavy rainfall, coastal flooding will be a concern if
Tuesday and Wednesday if current tide model trends continue a breezy
easterly and southeasterly winds translate across the coastal waters
along with longer wave period swells developing in those wind
conditions.
JB

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Some patchy fog has formed around the area however no impacts to
the TAF sites. An upper ridge over the area will suppress showers
and storms. With light southeasterly flow, we will see some mid
level decks. Otherwise a quiet period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Light offshore flow will prevail through Today. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will return by late tonight
as gulf moisture slowly moves northward. Precipitation chances
increase significantly Sunday through most of next week as
additional moisture from the Southern Gulf of Mexico advances
northward. East to southeast winds expected to increase near or
above 20 knots, along with increasing seas, beginning Monday, and
remain near this level for the remainder of the period. This
prolonged east to southeasterly fetch will likely cause increasing
tides, with minor coastal flooding possible. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be necessary during this time period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  95  72  94  72 /   0   0  30  20
LCH  94  75  93  75 /  10   0  60  50
LFT  97  75  93  76 /  10   0  80  50
BPT  95  75  94  76 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...87