464
FXUS64 KLCH 192342
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
642 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)

Wx map shows weak surface high pressure ridge across the Gulf
States northeast through the Great Lakes. Winds are light from the
east or variable around 6 mph or less across the area. Visible
satellite imagery shows scattered cumulus across our region.
Afternoon temperatures have reached the upper 80s to lower 90s.

For tonight, expect mostly clear skies expected with nearly calm
winds. Patchy fog likely by daybreak, but not expecting dense
fog at this time.

For Monday through Tuesday night, a dry northwest flow aloft
expected between the mid to upper level trough over the East Coast
and a mid to upper level ridge over Northern Mexico/South
Texas/Western Gulf of Mexico. Not expecting any precipitation, but
continued above normal temperatures. Expect overnight lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Maximum heat index values in the lower to mid 90s expected each
afternoon.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)

The long range continues with mainly dry, warm weather at the
surface across SETX and SWLA. Large region of upper level
convergence and subsidence shifts off the Carolina coast while
maintaining broad ridging SW across the central Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile upstream, the subtropical jet extends along Baja curving
NE over the Ohio to merge with the upstream pattern near the Great
Lakes region. A deep surface low will occlude over the Midwest
toward the western Great Lakes while extending across the central /
southern Plains into North Texas. The Low pressure center then fills
over Eastern Canada leaving partially detached frontal boundary,
becoming stationary over the southern Plains and TN Valley. This
frontal boundary, which guidance continues to indicate resting above
the ARKLATEX region, will serve as a focal area for any organized
showers and thunderstorms through Friday morning.

Locally, chances of POPs remain too low to keep in the forecast,
however, as this period comes into the short range outlook, the
potential for isolated, more airmass based, thunderstorms cannot be
completely ruled out. That said, low level subsidence will keep a
cap in place that would take a robust perturbation or sea breeze to
kick off any activity beyond cumulus. By Saturday, the upper
level pattern becomes a little more unsettled with regards to
little perturbations aloft, however, the overall zonal flow does
not add much room for major changes unless guidance brings about a
more organized shortwave south. Worth noting the lower
troposphere begins to show more variability on the pressure
pattern which may support Isolated activity, but there are no
signals strong enough to put that potential in the forecast right
now with confidence.

Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Afternoon CU continues to dissipate and expect VFR to prevail
through the period with minimal cloud cover overnight and SCT CU
developing again Monday. Fog will again be possible late tonight,
but MOS guidance and HREF probs suggest a low likelihood of
anything less than MVFR, with just some brief reductions
primarily around sunrise. Winds will be light and variable,
becoming SE-S 5-10 KT during the day.

24

&&

.MARINE...

Light onshore flow and low seas are expected through Monday with
no precipitation. Winds and seas are forecast to increase by Tuesday
due to the pressure gradient increasing between surface high pressure
to the east and low pressure across the Plains.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  91  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  70  89  72  89 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  71  91  71  89 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  72  89  74  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...24