Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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900
FXUS64 KLCH 110915
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
415 AM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...
What a difference 24 hours makes. Early morning sfc analysis
shows the cold front about to exit lower Acadiana with high
pressure building over the majority of the forecast area at this
time. Water vapor imagery shows troffing over the ern CONUS with a
nwrly flow now established over the wrn Gulf region...meanwhile,
a series of disturbances are noted upstream this morning.
Satellite imagery/sfc obs show just a bit of cloud cover along or
lagging shortly behind the boundary over the sern zones. Given the
dry airmass left behind, especially noted in upstream soundings
from 00z which have overspread the area over the past 10 hours,
not surprising that other than a little convection far offshore,
local 88Ds are PPINE. Temps are currently close to seasonal
values, on their way to slightly below normal values around
sunrise.

Not many changes to the inherited grids/zones this morning. The
lingering cloud cover over the sern zones should clear out over
the next few hours, leaving behind a sunny Sunday across the
area. It looks to be another rather warm day across the forecast
area as highs are progged to run in the lower to mid 80s. The
first upstream shortwave will cross the region tonight...with
limited moisture, expect just a slight increase in high
cloudiness. Mins will again be near seasonal with lows generally
in the 50s. Weak ridging building in behind the disturbance will
allow temps to further warm on Monday with highs into the upper
80s over interior sern TX. With the sfc high now east of the area,
an onshore low-level flow will return which will drive dewpoints
back up to the 50s/lower 60s which will make it feel warmer and
muggier. At this time, it doesn`t appear that deep layer moisture
will sufficient for any convective development.

The next shortwave in the series is progged to help spin up a sfc
low along the TX coast or nwrn Gulf Monday night into Tuesday.
Lift ejecting ewd across the area will combine with the increasing
moisture to allow for a few showers/storm or two to develop
beginning Monday night. POPs increase Tuesday as the low tracks
enewd into lower Acadiana/sern LA...at this time, the main
concerns with this activity appears to be occasional brief bursts
of heavier precip at most. After perhaps a brief respite Tuesday
night, rain chances again increase for Wednesday as the next
ripple in the flow helps drive the main sfc boundary through the
area.

Rain chances (mainly slim) linger through the remainder of the
forecast period as the presence of continued abundant moisture
behind the front and still more weak disturbances traversing the
wrly flow aloft will lead to the possibility of more showers/few
storms into next weekend. On the plus side, temps will remain
around or slightly below seasonal norms through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Other than perhaps a quick shot of SCEC conditions post-midweek
frontal passage, not anticipating any flags on the coastal waters
through this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  53  84  60 /   0   0  10  20
LCH  83  58  84  66 /   0   0  10  20
LFT  80  56  83  63 /   0   0  10  20
BPT  83  59  83  66 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

25



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