Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 211618
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1118 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.UPDATE...
Strong gradient winds persist acrs the area between 994 MB low
acrs S KS and 1016 MB high just off the southeastern seaboard.
Expanded the wind advisory acrs the remainder of our LA Parishes
as well as Orange County as winds acrs the area are above or near
the threshold speed of sustained 20 MPH. Regional radar mosaic
shows a band of showers and storms advancing east acrs TX, with a
secondary band of lighter showers (likely along a residual
outflow) approaching our NW zones. Strong low level flow will
maintain an influx of moisture, sufficient to sustain the band of
storms as it approaches our area by early aftn. With instability
enhanced by daytime heating/warm advection, some storms could be
strong, capable of producing gusty winds or possibly some small
hail, mainly acrs SE TX from north of I-10 to the Lakes. SPC
continues to advertise a MRGL risk for svr weather acrs this
region as well.

Recent coastal observations indicate water levels just reached
minor flood stage along the coast with high tide this morning,
while sites further inland show rises abv flood stage as of mid-
morning. Water levels continue to run about 1.5 to 2 feet abv
predicted values. Thus will maintain the Coastal Flood Warning
for lower SE TX and SW LA.

Overall, fcst is on track although did make some minor changes to
grids to reflect recent obs, and adjusted PoPs slightly to align
with latest hires guidance. Updated zones to include Wind Advisory
headlines.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019/

AVIATION...

Ceilings are expected to bounce between MVFR/VFR at area TAF sites
through the day with SCT/BKN ceilings ranging from 2500-3500 feet.
A few showers could impact AEX/BPT late this afternoon into this
evening. But for now, left any mention out of the TAFs due to
minimal Southerly winds will be gusty through the day with
sustained speeds 15-20 knots with frequent gusts of 25-30 knots.
Winds will still remain elevated around 10 knots but gusts should
come to an end after 22/00Z. Prevailing MVFR ceilings around 1500
feet are expected to return to all area TAF sites tonight.

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019/

DISCUSSION...A cold front is currently stretched from Northwest
Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley. A ridge at the surface is
over the northeast gulf. Aloft, a trough is over west Texas and
the 4 corners region while a ridge is over the southeast states.

The upper disturbance is expected to lift northeast today and
allow the cold front to push southeast into north Louisiana and
East Texas. The front will push into the west edge of the ridge,
stall, and then return back north tonight. The pressure gradient
between the southeast ridge and low pressure over the plains will
keep winds elevated today. Scattered showers and storms are
expected to move into SE TX and isolated storms into central and
western LA as the front draws closer.

The deep ridge over the southeast states will build west Wednesday
with hot, humid, and dry weather expected for the remainder of the
period. Most locations away from the immediate coast will hit 90
for the first time this year. A few well inland locations may
even approach the mid 90s by late in the weekend.

MARINE...Elevated winds caused by the tight pressure gradient
will drive tides to 1 to 2 feet above normal. This is expected to
cause coastal flooding especially around high tide which is
between 6 and 8AM. A second lower high tide is during the late
afternoon.

The tight pressure gradient will also produce winds of around 20
knots and higher today over the coastal waters.

The pressure gradient is expected to relax this evening into
tonight with high pressure building in from the east. The ridge
will remain over the area through the weekend and into next week.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  75  91  73 /  10  20  10   0
LCH  87  77  88  76 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  89  76  89  74 /   0  10   0   0
BPT  88  78  87  77 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ041-073-
     074.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ052>054.

TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ215-216.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ215-216.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ430-432-
     435-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...24


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