846
FXUS64 KLCH 140439
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1139 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Clear skies, light winds, and lower dewpoints in the wake of once
Hurricane Francine have resulted in a rather pleasant and seasonal
day across the forecast area for the end of the work week.
Temperatures currently range from the mid 80s to near 90, while
dewpoints are in the 60s areawide. Surface analysis shows now
post-tropical cyclone Francine meandering over N AR this
afternoon, while associated low pressure aloft provides a W to NW
flow and dry air overhead. Pleasant and seasonal conditions will
continue as we head into this evening and tonight, with
overnight/early morning lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s expected.

As we head into the weekend, the low pressure area associated with
the remnants of Francine will continue to meander to our N/NE,
both at the surface and aloft. Continued W/NW flow aloft will keep
drier air overhead through the weekend, which will help to keep
shower activity at bay for a while longer. However, moisture will
quickly return at the surface as winds become a bit more W to SW,
with dewpoints rebounding into the low to mid 70s by mid-day
tomorrow. Therefore, expect cloud cover to gradually increase
tomorrow and especially by Sunday, while RH values return to near
normal. Temperature wise, tomorrow looks to be a warm one, with
highs in the low to possibly mid 90s areawide. Sunday we return to
near seasonal norms thanks to the increase in cloud cover, with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Early next week a weakness aloft combined with modest moisture from
the remnants of Francine and a broad and weak trough in the area
will allow a few diurnal showers and storms. Most convection will be
confined to portions of Acadiana into Cen LA which will be closer to
the weakness aloft. SE TX may remain under the edge of an upper
ridge and therefore remain drier.

Tuesday the weakness aloft is expected to get sheared out over the
region as a stronger system along the Carolina coast takes shape.
This should still allow isolated to widely scattered diurnal
convection, however by Wednesday the upper ridge over TX is expected
to slide east. This is anticipated to reduce the already sparse rain
chances.

Temperatures for the extended period will remain near climo norms
for mid September.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

A repeat of last night`s forecast with prevailing VFR conditions
persist through most of the TAF period. The main concern will be
fog that will lead to MVFR/IFR conditions across the terminals.
Winds will be calm to light and variable through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Low winds and seas expected tonight through much of next week. No
precipitation expected today through the weekend, with only
isolated showers returning by Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  89  67  88 /   0  10  10  10
LCH  74  91  73  88 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  73  92  72  89 /   0  10  10  20
BPT  75  93  75  92 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14