297
FXUS64 KLCH 250439
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1139 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Surface high pressure will continue to ridge into the forecast
area from the east allowing for a persistent southerly flow to
continue over the weekend. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge
centered over northern Mexico will continue to be the main play
for the mid and upper levels.

Therefore, low level Gulf moisture will continue to flow into the
forecast area, keeping humidity values and dew points high.
However, with the cap from the upper level ridge, not expecting
any shower activity. Once again will have to watch for any
complexes that form over north and central Texas, however, all
indications that activity will diminish as it tries to reach the
forecast area.

The main story over the weekend will be the unseasonably very warm
temperatures and humid days, with muggy nights. Max afternoon heat
index values are forecast to be in the 100F to 105F range and just
below heat advisory criteria.

It should also be noted that the flow will bring in some residual
smoke from seasonal agricultural burning over central/southern
Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. Most of the smoke will remain
suspended providing a hazy look to the sky. Some particles that do
lower will combine with the high humidity to produce some light
visibility restrictions, due to patchy fog/haze with the best
chance to see reduced visibility overnight and near sunrise.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

As we begin the long term period, ridging aloft extending from
Mexico to the Gulf Coast will result in a hot and humid Memorial
Day, with temperatures expected to top out in the low to mid 90s
through the afternoon. NBM does paint sub-20 POPs across parts of
central LA, so a few isolated afternoon showers may become possible
during peak heating. However, for the most part another dry day is
anticipated. Tuesday looks to again bring unseasonably warm
conditions however, some slight reprieve looks to arrive in the form
of a weak cold front that will slide through the region during the
day. This boundary may be accompanied by some isolated showers
Tuesday afternoon, but overall dry conditions are expected.

Moving into the mid-week the boundary becomes situated offshore,
providing a more easterly flow from late Tuesday through Thursday.
This will result in slightly cooler overnight lows (mid 60s/lower
70s vs. low to mid 70s) as well as slightly lower dewpoints. In
addition, daytime highs will generally warm in the upper 80s area-
wide both Wednesday and Thursday. Unfortunately, we`re not expecting
any significantly cooler or drier air next week but this slight dip
in temps/dewpoints should be noticeable after a hot and humid
weekend. Low end rain chances also can be expected from Wed through
Fri, as a couple of weak disturbances are expected to pass overhead
in the flow aloft as the Gulf upper ridge backs off a bit. Still,
most areas will likely not see much of any rain next week with
coverage expected to be widely scattered at best. By the end of the
week the boundary offshore looks to lift north through the region as
a warm front, likely signaling a return to hot and humid conditions
as we head into June.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Upper level BKN to OVC decks of stratus will prevail over
locations inland, north of I-10 with showers / storms weakening
over E`rn TX. Concurrently, MVFR conditions to prevail through
the overnight hours as the humid marine boundary layer continues
to usher in low level moisture creating a BKN to OVC deck beneath
dry air subsidence around 3kft. Winds will continue due southerly
into the morning hours. Northern sites (AEX) have potential to see
very brief IFR ceilings during the dawn hours. Patches of
periodic BR occurring across coastal locations and will persist
through sunrise. Thereafter ceilings will lift and break toward
VFR into the midday hours as southerly winds pickup by the early
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Surface high pressure will remain off the Florida coast and ridge
into the region. This will keep a persistent southerly flow going
across the coastal waters. Winds will occasionally be moderate and
gusty over the weekend as a series of surface lows develop over
the Plains, and small craft exercise caution may need to be
headlined on Saturday night into Sunday to account for this.

Otherwise, no significant shower activity is expected over the
coastal waters until early next week when a weak frontal boundary
nears the coastal waters.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  93  72  92 /  10  10   0   0
LCH  76  89  76  88 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  77  92  77  91 /   0  10   0   0
BPT  77  90  77  90 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...30