718
FXUS64 KLCH 192105
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
405 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Storm Alberto is moving west across the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico this afternoon, poised to make landfall along the
Mexican coast late tonight into early Thursday morning. While
convection continues to become better defined around the center of
the system, suggesting a little better organization, the storm
continues to display a large and asymmetric wind field over the
western Gulf, along with some bands of convection over the NW Gulf
of Mexico and coastal waters adjacent to LCH/HGX.

The primary impacts from this system continues to be significant
coastal flooding along Jefferson County and Cameron Parish. Water
levels late this afternoon continue to run close to 2.5 feet MHHW
at Texas Point and between 2.0 and 2.5 feet MHHW at Calcasieu
Pass. Even inland, water levels have exceeding flood criteria with
Bulk Terminal on the Calcasieu River near 2.0 feet MHHW, Lake
Charles 1.9 feet MHHW and Port Arthur and Bridge City between 2.0
and 2.5 feet MHHW.

The good news is that the heavy rainfall potential expected the
past couple of days has not been as heavy or widespread as
originally thought. KLCH radar shows a band of showers and storms
over the coastal waters beyond 20 NM, while further inland
convection has been minimal, with some scattered small showers now
developing across central and southern LA.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The latest guidance for TS Alberto now has the outer edge of TS
force winds to the southwest of our coastal waters, and winds
should gradually taper off through Friday, especially once the
system begins to deteriorate after landfall. Aloft, ridging
centered over the mid-Atlantic will build southwest across the
area the next couple of days.

Regarding the risk for coastal flooding, the Coastal Flood
Warning has been extended inland to include areas around Sabine
and Calcasieu Lakes in southern Orange County and Calcasieu
Parish. While water levels will fall some tonight during low tide,
P-ETSS guidance indicates tide levels climbing back to between 2
to 2.5 FT MHHW at Texas Point and Calcasieu Pass and between 1.5
and 2.0 FT MHHW further inland around Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes
at times of high tide late tonight into Thursday morning.
Similarly for points further east, water levels will again pose
the potential for minor coastal flooding across portions of lower
Saint Mary and Iberia Parishes around time of high tide early
Thursday so the Advisory will also remain in effect.

As the high aloft builds over the region, deep flow over the
region will become more easterly, with moisture, while abundant,
not nearly as prolific as it has been. PWATs will trend below the
90th percentile and probably closer to the climo mean. This will
result in a transition toward a more seasonal pattern the next
couple of days, with more scattered and diurnally-forced
convection forming along the seabreeze and other mesoscale
boundaries. Saturday appears to be the driest of the days in the
short term as weak capping develops aloft, which should help limit
shower coverage.

With decreasing cloud cover and more scattered showers each
afternoon, daytime temperatures are expected to warm back to near
seasonal levels, in the lower 90s. With strengthening high
pressure aloft and reduced convection on Saturday, high
temperatures are expected to climb back into the middle 90s across
the northern half of the area with lower 90s for the southern
areas.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

At the beginning of the long term, we will have a broad upper level
ridge extending across the Gulf Coast / Southeast States. This will
be shunted off to the Desert Southwest over the weekend, where it
will stay for most of the next work week, however some of its
influence will be felt over interior SETX and CenLA.

Another broad area of low pressure has a 30% chance of development
in the Bay of Campeche this weekend. It is expected to move WNW to
NW over the period. Thanks to the ridge, this system and its
associated tropical moisture is expected to stay well offshore.
Therefore no direct impacts are likely. Nevertheless, near daily
isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected over the
CWA. With most of the activity being diurnally driven, we can expect
our normal summer pattern with showers and storms starting in the
afternoon then beginning to taper in the evening hours each day.

Temperatures will be (and feel) summerlike. MaxTs will be in the mid
to upper 90s with MinTs in the 70s. Dewpoints will be in the 70s as
well, making it plenty humid.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A mix of VFR and MVFR noted amid SCT/BKN CU across the area
today. KLCH radar currently pretty quiet although visible
satellite suggests some deeper CU beginning to form across
southern LA and SE TX which could lead to some scattered SHRA/TSRA
through the afternoon. Kept just a VC mention at all sites for
today. Otherwise, easterly winds will prevail with sustained
speeds at the southern terminals 13-18 KT with gusts as high as
25-30 KT at times. Further north at AEX, winds will not be quite
as strong, generally 12G20KT. Convection should diminish this
evening, with VFR to prevail overnight. A few showers or storms
developing over the nearshore waters late tonight/early Thursday
could spread inland toward BPT after daybreak.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Storm Alberto in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will
continue to move west toward the Mexican coast through early
Thursday. Strong easterly winds will persist, but should slowly
diminish over the next day or two. With tropical storm force winds
now expected to stay southwest of our waters, the Tropical Storm
Warning has been cancelled and replaced with a Small Craft
Advisory. While a few gusts to gale force will be possible, they
should mainly be confined to pockets of convection and have opted
not to issue a Gale Warning for the outer waters. Winds will
gradually become more southeast to south by late in the weekend
into early next week.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  92  70  93 /  30  10   0  10
LCH  76  90  73  91 /  10  50  20  50
LFT  77  91  75  93 /   0  50  10  50
BPT  78  92  75  92 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ073-074-241.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...24