325
FXUS64 KLCH 161137
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
637 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The upper level remnants of Francine will continue to meander over
the ArkLaMiss today while a weak, quasistationary frontal boundary
continues to ebb and flow along the gulf coast with about 5
degrees of dewpoint differential on either side of it. Similar to
the last two days, high res guidance is in good agreement on
isolated to widely scattered convection developing in the vicinity
of this boundary this afternoon and early evening with activity
waning around sunset.

By Tuesday, the remnants of Francine will become absorbed by the
landfalling Potential Tropical Cyclone 8. This will pull the
general weakness aloft a bit further to the east as a strong ridge
axis nudges into east Texas. This will keep a lid on precip across
Southeast Texas with isolated to scattered afternoon convection
possible across south central Louisiana. Any convection that
manages to materialize should dissipate again around sunset. The
ridge will build further east into the area Wednesday which should
keep the whole area dry. Temperatures will remain near seasonal
normals through the period.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The second half of the week into the weekend will be dominated by
a synoptic Omega pattern aloft. Ridging across much of the central
U.S. will maintain no appreciable precip chances and mostly clear
skies allowing afternoon highs to climb into the mid 90s each
afternoon. This pattern begins to break down near the end of the
forecast period as the ridge is shunted back south into Mexico.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Patchy, very shallow, ground fog will potentially impact area
terminals over the next hour or so before dissipating with VFR
conditions to prevail thereafter through the day. Light, variable
winds this morning will become predominantly Northwesterly by late
morning through the evening before becoming variable again
overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon across parts of south central Louisiana
potentially impacting LFT and ARA, but confidence is too low to
explicitly mention in tafs attm. Any storms that develop will
dissipate around or shortly after sunset this evening. Patchy fog
will again be possible early Tuesday morning.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A weak pressure gradient across the gulf this week will keep
winds light and seas low. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible across the near shore waters this afternoon and
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  86  69  85  68 /  20  10  20   0
LCH  88  72  87  73 /  20  10  20   0
LFT  89  73  89  74 /  30  10  30   0
BPT  92  73  91  75 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66