064
FXUS64 KLCH 160312
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1012 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Wx map shows very weak pressure gradient over the region,
resulting in calm wind inland, and light and variable across the
coastal waters. Radar showing a band of showers and occasional
thunderstorm across Southeast Texas across Hardin, Jefferson and
Orange counties. This will likely continue for the next hour or so
before dissipating this evening/early Monday morning. Adjusted
the nearterm chances of showers and thunderstorms upward for
this, despite the nearterm model guidance showing it should have
dissipated by now. Further proof of the continued need for human
meteorologist intervention of these high resolution models.
Anyrate, the remainder of the forecast should be on track, with no
further updates needed at this time.

08/DML

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The weak remnants associated with Francine continues to drift
around LA, AR, MS, AL, and the FL panhandle this afternoon with a
weak boundary extending from this broad low into the local area.
Diurnal heating, weak convergence from the surface boundary, and a
weakness aloft will continue to allow convection to develop into
the afternoon. A ridge axis is also centered over TX which will
suppress convection farther west keeping most showers and storms
over LA. Extra convergence caused by the sea breeze will also
concentrate convection along the coastal areas to I-10 through
early evening.

Monday, the moisture and weak, broad trough will drift southwest
due to being driven by a developing Carolina coastal system. This
will keep pops in the forecast for another day. Convection will be
highest across the Atchafalaya where moisture will be deeper.
Showers can not be ruled out in SE TX, but the minimal chance will
be highest along the coast.

By Tuesday and Wednesday the remnants of Francine are expected to
have filled while the ridge from Texas builds in. Decreasing rain
chances are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Upper level ridging will gradually build overhead from the west on
Wednesday, remaining over the Ark-La-Tex through the at least
Saturday. At the same time, weak surface high pressure is expected
to meander around the northern Gulf Coast through the second half of
the week. This will bring about a benign and dry pattern that will
last through the end of the long term period.  Little to no precip,
mostly sunny skies, and near or slightly above normal temps can be
expected each day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s
each day, while lows will fall into the upper 60s to mid 70s each
night.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Scattered convection is anticipated to develop across Acadiana
through the next couple hours as we reach peak diurnal heating.
Storms may produce a brief period of lower vis and ceilings,
however the area will generally experience VFR conditions through
the period outside of convection. Winds will be light and VRB to
north or northeast, expect at BPT where the sea breeze may push
the direction SW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A weak surface boundary will meander along the cost through
Tuesday bringing a period of light offshore winds. This will also
allow showers and storms to be possible through early in the
week. The boundary will return north by Wednesday with light
onshore winds resuming through late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  86  69  86 /   0  20  10  10
LCH  72  88  72  87 /  10  10   0  10
LFT  72  89  73  88 /   0  30   0  20
BPT  74  92  74  91 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...05