547
FXUS64 KLIX 042057
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
357 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Upper ridging near both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts this
afternoon with shortwaves over the middle and lower Mississippi
River Valley and a second over the Great Plains.

A complex of thunderstorms was moving into the area from the
northwest at press time and necessitated the issuance of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch until 8 PM CDT across much of the northern half
of the CWA with the primary threat of damaging winds. Will
eventually see the current complex weaken with the loss of surface
heating. Ahead of the storms, temperatures ranged from the mid 80s
to lower 90s across the area with dew points generally in the mid
70s.

As has been the case for several days, the main concerns will be
with thunderstorm potential. As long as we continue in
northwesterly upper flow, each shortwave moving toward the upper
trough position will trigger a thunderstorm complex to our
northwest at some point. The complex then moves southeastward
toward the local area and eventually weakens as it outruns the
best thermodynamic support. Global and convection allowing models
have struggled to model these complexes both in spatial and
temporal details. Seemingly over the last several days, the ECMWF
operational model and longer range runs of the HRRR have performed
a bit better than most of the other models. The NBM certainly
gives these solutions some credence and will keep those numbers,
and in the case of this evening, bump them up somewhat, at least
through 02z or so. Once things stabilize behind the convection,
rain chances should diminish quickly for the remainder of the
night.

The ECMWF and HRRR both signal another complex during the day
tomorrow, and will not go with a dry forecast like the GFS and NAM
would indicate. Still will see temperatures get into the 90s
before convection gets going again, and won`t depart from the NBM
temperature numbers tomorrow/tomorrow night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Troughing will be exiting the area to the east by Thursday morning,
leaving a remnant boundary behind. The most likely area for the
boundary seems to be in the northern portions of the area. Areas
south of the boundary will see enhanced heating due to compressional
warming. We will still have quality moisture on Thursday with PW
around 1.9-2 inches where the boundary lays up. So, with the
heating, moisture and trigger, expect storms to develop in the
vicinity of the best surface convergence where the boundary lays up
in the area.

Drier mid-level air looks to filter into the area Friday, decreasing
rain chances while keeping the boundary somewhere in the area.
Scattered showers and storms are still possible Friday, but the
coverage will be less than Thursday due to the drier air filtering
in.

The boundary looks to become diffuse by the weekend, so that will
lead to a lack of low-level trigger for convection. With quality
moisture still in the area with PW around 1.6-1.8 inches, expect a
more summer-time isolated convective regimes Saturday and Sunday.
Medium-range guidance differs significantly beyond the weekend with
a potential front at the beginning of next week. The spatial and
temporal aspect of the front seems very uncertain at this time, but
that is not surprising given it is about a week out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Main question for aviation interests is convective development.
While TSRA are still well back toward KSHV, there`s been quite a
bit of SHRA development in advance of that in the past 30-60, so
we may need additional amendments to add thunder in the next few
hours. Cloud bases generally between FL025 and FL035, but direct
impacts could produce MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities. Most
convection should dissipate by 01z Wednesday. Potential for MVFR
to IFR ceilings prior to sunrise Wednesday. Based on the last few
days, certainly won`t rule out an additional round of convection
on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Main marine concern will be the thunderstorm threat over the next
several days. Outside of thunderstorm wind potential, we`ll have
the usual evening increase in winds to near 15 knots before they
subside again. Otherwise, no major marine issues anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  90  71  89 /  40  50  40  40
BTR  75  94  76  94 /  30  40  20  50
ASD  75  93  76  93 /  30  30  30  50
MSY  77  92  78  92 /  30  30  20  60
GPT  77  90  76  91 /  30  30  30  50
PQL  74  92  75  92 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW