674
FXUS64 KLIX 250450
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1150 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Tonight through Thursday morning, a frontal system will be moving
through our area, enhancing some rain chances through Thursday
morning. Scattered showers will be possible on Thursday,
especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. These storms will have
the potential for lightning and some gusty winds (30-50mph) inside
stronger storms. Temperatures Wednesday will still be around
average or just above average with highs in the low to mid 90s. So
make sure to stay hydrated tomorrow and prepare for the chance of
rain! MSW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Thursday, as the tropical cyclone pushes toward Florida, rain
chances will be increased mainly for our coastal MS and marine
areas. The chances for rain for Thursday are very uncertain for
the models, but generally have 30-40% PoPs for Thursday for MS
coastal areas. Any storms that develop will have the potential for
locally heavy rainfall and lightning. Some gusty winds (30-40mph)
will also be possible.

Friday through Sunday, conditions should be fairly dry overall
given the lingering dry air over the area. Humidities will be a
lot lower as well. Temperatures should be very pleasant as well
with highs in the low to mid 80s for the weekend. MSW

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Currently VFR at all forecast terminals. That being said,
certainly some potential for MVFR ceilings, as KREG is reporting
BKN025. A bit better chance for MVFR ceilings toward sunrise with
the approaching cold front from the north. Low level convergence
may be lacking somewhat along the front on Wednesday, so not
highly confident in convective development. Best chances may be
KMCB, KHDC, KASD, KGPT. Will carry VCTS at those, and VCSH
elsewhere or not at all. Main threat of precipitation, such as it
is, should be gone prior to 00z Thursday, with VFR conditions
beyond that point. Expect winds to increase somewhat beyond 00z
Thursday, but the only terminals that might see impacts during
this forecast package would be KNEW and perhaps KMSY, as cooler,
drier air mixes down over Lake Pontchartrain.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Benign marine conditions with moderate easterly winds (10-15kts)
through Thursday morning. As Tropical Storm Helene progresses
toward Florida, marine conditions will deteriorate. Winds will
increase to 20-25kts with northerly winds and small craft
headlines will likely be necessary Thursday. Winds will ease to
10-15kts and westerly in direction Friday through the weekend. MSW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  84  65  82 /  40  50  10  10
BTR  74  91  69  87 /  20  40  10  10
ASD  72  89  69  85 /  10  30  20  20
MSY  75  89  73  85 /  10  30  10  10
GPT  73  89  69  85 /   0  30  40  30
PQL  72  92  71  87 /   0  40  60  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...MSW