166
FXUS64 KLIX 112345
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
645 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A few afternoon storms have developed across parts of the CWFA at
the time of this discussion. As of now, the higher concentration
of convection is across the southshore or along and south of the
I10 corridor. Coverage is mostly widely scattered, less than days
past as an upper level ridge continues to retrograde into the
region. Shower and storm activity should come to an end around or
shortly after sunset. Overnight the main concern will be the
potential for fog over the southwest MS Counties.

Saturday looks to be a skosh warmer than today as the ridge
continues to build further over the region. The ridge will help
limit but not fully stop convection from developing. The best
potential will be west of the Lakes/I55 corridor closer to a
decaying H5 shear axis over northwestern portions of the state.
(Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Going into the second half of the weekend rain chances are not
zero, but they are not as high as climo POPs, again with the
upper ridge sitting over our region. There may be a weak impulse
at H5 that if timed with the daily sea/lake breeze could ignite a
bit more convection than currently advertised, so that`s something
to watch.

Going into the start of the new workweek, temperatures are going
to go from hot to potentially dangerous with heat index values
approaching headline criteria if not Sunday most certainly Monday
and beyond with some heat index values exceeding 110F on Tuesday.
This would likely be an areawide heat advisory PLUS situation
basically for all of next week. There will be chances of showers
and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. However, the rain
chances will need to be watched mid to late week next week as an
easterly wave begins to slide under the H5 ridge that by then will
be sitting over the Nashville Basin. The finer details are a bit
fuzzy with most models not really agreeing on placement and
strength. However, the steering currents will weaken a good bit,
which may be the first signal for a potential hydro event setting
up, especially if the GFS and CMC are correct. Nothing set in
stone, but something to monitor as we sweat out the next few days.
(Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Most of the convection over land has dissipated this evening, only
leaving some very isolated showers across the area, mainly in the
vicinity of MCB. Expect the residual showers to dissipate fully by
the time the sun sets this evening. If those showers nearby MCB
can saturate the ground enough at MCB, IFR conditions could be a
concern right around daybreak, but current guidance is suggesting
conditions will remain VFR. Otherwise, convective activity is
expected to pick up again tomorrow afternoon, mainly across the
western and northern portions of the area impacting BTR and MCB,
therefore TEMPO groups have been mentioned there. However, for the
rest of the sites, although confidence is not as high for
convective coverage, the pattern remains very much summer-like, so
mentioned PROB30 at the rest of the sites due to the expected
scattered nature of the convection across the rest of the area
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

High pressure will set up over the local waters through much of
the forecast period. This will keep winds light and variable.
Overall favorable marine conditions expected. That said, there
could still be diurnally driven convection, especially during the
late night and morning hours. In and around convection expect
locally higher winds and seas at least briefly. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  72  94 /  30  60  10  40
BTR  74  93  74  93 /  10  60  10  50
ASD  73  93  74  93 /  20  40   0  40
MSY  78  94  78  93 /  20  60  10  50
GPT  75  92  76  93 /  30  40  10  40
PQL  73  93  74  93 /  40  40  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...RDF