190
FXUS65 KLKN 220927
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
227 AM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with well above normal temperatures through at
least Monday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to
portions of northern and central NV Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night. Weak near-zonal flow
over the region is beginning to back slightly to the southwest as
NV is squeezed between a center of low pressure off the BC coast
and high pressure slowly building up from the desert southwest.
While 500DM heights over NV see only minimal increases this
weekend, the increased southwesterly flow over NV will result in
significant increases to temperatures. Highs today will be 3-6
degrees warmer than highs yesterday, with most locations 10-15
degrees above normal for this date. On Sunday much of central NV
and eastern Elko county will see temperatures rise an additional
1-4 degrees, though the northwestern portion of the CWA (including
all of Humboldt county) will see temperatures cool a couple
degrees on Sunday. Temperature-wise the main concern this weekend
will be the lack of relief from the afternoon heat in and around
West Wendover as the overnight temperatures only lower into the
low to mid 70s. A Heat Advisory has been issued for SE Elko
county which includes West Wendover. Low temperatures across the
remainder of the CWA will cool into the 50s and 60s. Dry
conditions are expected across the CWA this weekend.


.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday.

The Silver State looks to remain between two major upper level
features as the first week of Summer begins. The first main upper
level feature is the upper level troughing over the Canadian
Maritime, shortwave working through the strong westerly flow will
help drive the occasional front into northern Nevada during the
week but not really affecting temperatures. The second feature is
a strong subtropical ridge of high pressure that will meander
between New Mexico and the Rio Grande valley of western Texas. The
surface component of this feature is the moist monsoonal flow
that will continue to drift north over the four corners. This
moisture will very slow work westward during the week, helping
enhance the mid level moisture across Nevada. This flow will first
help develop some convective buildups and occasional virga with
an occasional lightning strike. By Wednesday mid level moisture
will be concentrated by a weak shortwave trough transiting the
southwesterly flow. This shortwave will push a boundary into
central NV allowing for a low chance for a mix of dry and wet
thunderstorms across eastern NV Wednesday evening and Thursday
evening. By Friday the trough moves east and pushes the mid level
moisture out of the area again leaving quiet conditions for
Saturday. Temperatures will begin the week in the upper 80s to
upper 90s, running about 10+ degrees above normal. Temperatures
will cool a bit across northern Nevada with the passage of a front
Friday into the upper 70s to upper 80s. Central Nevada will not
feel any relief as highs remain in the upper 80s to upper 90s.
Highs across the north will recover quickly back into the mid 80s
to mid 90s by the weekend as the upper ridge shifts slightly
westward. Overnight lows will also start above normal in the low
50s to 60s, a brief cool down into the mid 40s to mid 50s Friday
across the north before returning to the low 50s to low 60s for
the weekend. Winds for the extended will be generally out of the
west to WSW for the week at 5 MPH to 15 MPH with the occasional
gust up to 25 MPH. Winds will pick up across the north Thursday
and Friday as the front moves through, with W to WNW winds of 10
MPH to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions and dry weather are expected at all
terminals over the next 24 hours. Southwesterly breezes this
afternoon will be the main concern with gusts generally around
20KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...No storm development this weekend, however hot
and dry conditions are expected across the entire region, with
highs generally in the 90s. Afternoon winds this weekend will
mainly be in the 7-17mph range with gusts up to 25 mph. Slightly
higher winds are expected over northern Humboldt county Sunday
afternoon, with some of the higher terrain in zones 437 and 438
possibly seeing gusts reaching up into low 30mph range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Temperatures trend warmer this weekend, with well
above normal temperatures continuing into next week. Rises on
some area streams and creeks coming off higher terrain are
expected over the next few days, but for now not expecting any new
flooding as the snowpack is greatly diminished.

Wildhorse Reservoir water level remains elevated from the spring
snowmelt.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Wednesday
Southeastern Elko County.

&&

$$

96/98/92/96