904
FXUS65 KLKN 051033
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
333 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A strengthening high pressure ridge will bring even
warmer temperatures to the region today and especially Thursday
where highs in some lower valleys will reach 100F degrees. An
upper-level disturbance and Pacific moisture will bring showers
and thunderstorms to northern Nevada Thursday and Friday with
shower coverage confined to northeastern Nevada over the weekend.
Drier conditions along with slightly cooler temperatures are
expected early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night

Heat continues to build over the state with highs today reaching
well into the 80s and 90s across the area. Light winds are
expected as well under mostly sunny skies in the morning with
afternoon cumulus clouds developing over mainly mountain ranges.
Low temperatures will drop into the 50s across the area tonight.
Changes are in store for Thursday as a subtle upper-level short
wave combines with mid-level Pacific moisture and daytime heating
to generate showers and thunderstorms across much of northwestern
and northern Nevada Thursday afternoon. Convective environment
looks impressive with CAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg in some
locations, precipitable water values approaching 0.90" and at
least some shear will promote some strong thunderstorms capable of
hail and strong downdraft winds. Further impacts could be rain on
snow, at least remaining high mountain snow across the Rubies and
northern Nevada mountains. Despite cloud cover and expected
shower and thunderstorm activity, temperatures will still reach up
to 20 degrees above normal Thursday with highs well into the 90s
with some lower 100s across northeastern Nye county.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Tuesday.

Models and ensembles have been fairly consistent over the last
week in indicating the possibility of convective activity Friday.
Current guidance shows a shortwave pattern over the Pacific
Northwest, with troughing west of British Columbia and
Washington. A negatively tilted ridge is also extending east and
south over most of the western US, including Nevada. Near record
high temperatures are being forecasted under the ridge with highs
across the state generally in the mid to upper 90s. Model data
and GFS soundings show surface CAPE values around 1500-1600 J/kg
in the afternoon. Local research suggests CAPE values as low as
100-200 J/kg is enough to initiate dry thunderstorms, and anything
over 500 J/kg is needed for large outbreaks. High CAPE values
coinciding with inverted-V soundings (also present) is conducive
for strong outflows from any thunderstorms that do develop. DCAPE
(Downward CAPE) values over 1000 J/kg and as high as 1500 J/kg is
forecasted in the GFS model sounding at Elko. In general, DCAPE
over 1000 j/kg with dry air at low levels and moist air at mid
levels (inverted-V sounding) is conducive to strong to possibly
severe microbursts or downbursts. Precipitable water values
ranging from 0.60-0.85" as well as dew points greater than 50F
suggest a mixed mode between wet and dry thunderstorms, but
leaning slightly toward wet storms. Moderate to strong lift is
also present with lifted indicies (LI) ranging between -2 and -4
(the more negative the greater the lift). 0-6 Bulk Shear values of
30-40 knots are also present indicating a moderate level of
shear. All this to say isolated to scattered showers with isolated
wet and dry thunderstorms are expected across areas north of the
US-50 corridor. The most favorable environment where all of the
above ingredients align is across most of Elko and portions of
Eureka and White Pine counties. Thunderstorms that do form will
have the potential for gusty and erratic, possibly severe
downdraft winds from collapsing. Storms will be moving fast enough
where flash flooding is unlikely, but some overland flooding
could still occur in isolated occasions. Lows Friday night will
cool into the 50s to near 60.


Saturday, the ridge begins to break down due to nearby offshore
troughing. A lot of the same ingredients from Friday, minus the
large CAPE values, will be present Saturday. The chances for isolated
to scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will again exist
across much of Elko, portions of Eureka, and northern portions of
White Pine county. CAPE and moisture will be present across much
of White Pine county, however there doesn`t look to be as much
lift across this area during the afternoon. For this reason the
confidence of seeing storms that far south is slightly lower.
Highs will remain in the low to mid 90s during the day, with lows
in the 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday, a shortwave moves across northern Nevada. Current
indications are that CAPE, lift, shear, and moisture will all be
adequate across Northeastern Nevada to produce another round of
afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs are forecasted
to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows in the
50s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to be quieter with some brief
ridging ahead of the next system mid to late next week. There may
be some showers across extreme NE Nevada on Monday, however most
of the area is expected to remain dry. Highs are forecasted in the
upper 80 to lower 90s with lows remaining in the 50s for most.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions with light winds are expected through
Wednesday night. A few clouds are expected to develop near or over
some mountain ranges but no imparts at TAF locations. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected across northern Nevada Thursday
afternoon. Gusty winds, cloud to ground lightning and small hail
are possibilities Thursday afternoon across the I-80 corridor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows expected to continue in some areas of
streams and rivers from the seasonal snowmelt. Increasing
temperatures are expected to increase the rate of snowmelt from
the remaining snow on mountain tops through the weekend. Chances
for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the latter half of the
week could produce wetting rain over the remaining snowpack across
some areas in northern Nevada.

The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain remains in action stage
and is forecasted to slowly rise but remain in action stage for
the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the
next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues to trend upward with diurnal fluctuations
in height. Overall trend continues to see an increase with minor
flooding possible by mid to late next week as temperatures
continue to rise above normal.

Jarbidge River is forecast to slowly rise but remain in action
stage over the next few days.


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

93/91/96