342
FXUS65 KLKN 242155
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
255 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures will be joined by thunderstorm
chances Tuesday and Wednesday as a mid level moisture plume is
steered into the state by a strong upper level ridge. However, a
cool front passing through will bring fire weather concerns
Wednesday, but cooler temps for some Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night

The Silver State continues to remain between two major upper
level features as the first week of Summer begins. The first main
upper level feature is the upper level troughing over the Canadian
Maritime, shortwave working through the strong westerly flow will
help drive a front through northern Nevada but not until
Wednesday. The second feature, and the main player for Tonight and
Tuesday is a strong subtropical ridge of high pressure that will
meander between New Mexico and the Rio Grande valley of western
Texas. The second component of this feature is the moist monsoonal
flow that also has some of the associated moisture from former
Atlantic tropical storm Alberto in the mid levels. This moisture
will be steered north into NV by the upper ridge as the ridge
itself drifts westward over Arizona. For Monday as the moist flow
begins its approach will be for some convective buildups and maybe
some virga mainly along and south of US-50. For Tuesday the flow
will be thicker ans may support an isolated to scattered mix of
dry and wet thunderstorms across west central NV. Considering that
the surface layer is very dry, it will take some time for the mid
level moisture used by storms to make it to the surface in the
form of rain. So probabilities favor more dry than wet storms for
Tuesday evening and with the dry conditions and warm temperatures,
fire weather concerns are starting to creep back into view.
Temperatures will continue to be above normal, with highs ranging
in the upper 80s to upper 90s and with a few locals seeing 100.
Overnight lows wont provide much relief from the heat, but with
lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s current heat product for SE Elko is
in good standing as Salt-flat lows will hover in the low 70s.
Winds will be on the uptick Tuesday afternoon as the upper level
trough moves closer the the area, as W to SW winds of 10 MPH to 20
MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday

Ample atmospheric moisture along with a transiting short wave
through the region will spark off showers and thunderstorms
across much of eastern Nevada. PWAT anomalies of 3 to close to 4
standard deviations will be across the area as a result of a plume
of moisture expected to move over the region through Wednesday
from the eastern Pacific. The thermodynamic conditions will be
favorable for convection but forcing will be weak as the subtle
short wave traverses eastward across northern Nevada. Winds
however will respond to an increasing pressure gradient in
northwest Nevada. This combined with a very dry sub cloud layer
will promote critical fire weather conditions across Humboldt
County and portions of Lander county. With scattered convection
around the area Wednesday, expect at the least gusty outflow winds
and some cloud to ground lightning with a few areas receiving
wetting rains, but not many. Temperatures Wednesday will reach
into the 90s in valleys.

Moisture will be largely pushed eastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as a cold front moves through the region. Temperatures
will be knocked down to a more comfortable mix of lower to mid 80s
across northern Nevada with 90s remaining US-50 southward. WEst
winds will be elevated but lower temperatures humidity will be
above critically low thresholds across northeastern Nevada.A few
showers along the Utah/Nevada border are possible but not
widespread and favored over higher terrain. Dry conditions move
back into the region under zonal flow by Friday. Hotter
temperatures in the 90s area wide return for the weekend. Another
trough skirts the area to the north but confidence is a bit low in
terms of impacts. Minimal impacts are expected as of now but that
may change in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through tonight across the
area. High Gusty afternoon winds from the west-southwest are
expected this afternoon, diminishing into the evening hours. Wind
gusts as high as 25 knots. High based cumulus buildups mainly over
mountain ranges will dissipate this evening as well. There is a
chance for rain showers near KPTH but probability is below 10% so
withheld VCSH in TAF for now. Additional mid to upper-level
moisture will move into central and northeastern Nevada Tuesday
allowing for more widespread convection including isolated dry
thunderstorms. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the
primary threats starting around 20Z. Winds during the day on
Tuesday will be lighter than today, generally from the west and
southwest at 10-15 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal temperatures will continue through
mid week as highs range in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Low
humidity in the 10% to 15% range as well as a slight up tick in
WSW winds Tuesday, and a cold front driving stronger winds out of
WSW to WNW at 15 MPH to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH on
Wednesday will keep fire concerns near critical. In addition the
the winds an low RH, chances for a mix of dry and wet
thunderstorms will be possible across central NV Tuesday and most
of NV Wednesday. Another consideration is fuels and fuel loading,
and with near cured to cured fine fuels, went ahead and issued a
fire weather watch for Wednesday evening for zones 437 and 424 in
northern Nevada. After the frontal passage RH and winds will
recover, and along with cooler temps for Thursday and Friday help
ease concerns through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Temperatures remain well above normal, with rises on
some area streams and creeks coming off higher terrain expected
over the next few days. However, flooding concerns are
diminishing as the snow pack is greatly diminished.

The water level on Wildhorse Reservoir has fallen below action
stage so the flood advisory has been cancelled. The reservoir
level is expected to continue to slowly decline through this
week.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening Humboldt County-Quinn...Southeastern Humboldt County and
northern Lander County.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday Southeastern Elko County.

&&

$$

98/93/93/98/93