Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
382 FXUS65 KLKN 210942 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 242 AM PDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and a few degrees warmer today, with increasing clouds in the afternoon. Temperatures jump significantly higher on Saturday, with well above normal temperatures continuing into next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night. Weak trough energy over the region today will result in some afternoon cumulus cloud build-ups. The probability of thunderstorms this afternoon (5-10%) is too low to justify adding TS to the forecast. Can not rule out a couple lightning strikes over the region as a whole today however, with virga also possible. Winds this afternoon will generally be in the 5-10mph range with gusts of 15-25mph. It is possible however that collapsing cumulus clouds late this afternoon and early evening could produce stronger downdraft winds as model sounding show DCAPE values ranging from 1200-1700 J/kg. Trough energy exits east into Utah this evening, leaving a weak near-zonal flow across northern and central NV. High pressure builds in from the south on Saturday which will result in noticeably warmer temperatures across the region, with many locations warming by an additional 4-8 degrees as afternoon highs reach 90s in many areas and even low 100s in some of the lower elevation valleys such as Winnemucca and Battle Mountain. Dry and storm-free across the region on Saturday. .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday. Dry southwesterly flow resides over the forecast area Sunday as high pressure resides over the four corners region and low pressure builds over the Gulf of Alaska. This setup looks to remain in place thru mid week with dry weather in store, complimented by typical afternoon breezes with gusts around 20 mph. Afternoon cumulus will also be present each day. Slight increase in PoPs indicated across eastern Nevada and along the Utah border Wednesday with slightly better probability for cumulus buildups during the afternoon along the Utah border. Probability of precipitation remains less than 10% however. Temperatures will be warmer than normal thru mid week with daytime highs persisting in the upper 80s to upper 90s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Some concern for SE Elko County including the Wendover area with overnight low temperatures currently forecast to remain in the low 70s, hampering overnight recovery from daytime highs that will be in the upper 90s. Deep upper low noted over the Gulf of Alaska is indicated to move into the PacNW in the Thursday time frame which would bring a cold front into northern Nevada from the northwest late Thursday or sometime Friday. However, there is disagreement among guidance as to the evolution of the low and low confidence is expressed in timing and potential impacts at this time. But a low probability of showers will be present across northern Nevada and gusty winds will likely be the main effect along with temperatures cooling a few degrees the latter half of the week from north to south. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions through Friday. Winds will be light of the W to SW at 5KT to 15KT with gusts to 25KT across northern and central Nevada. There is a low 10% chance of an isolated dry thunderstorm or two that will exist across the I-80 corridor Friday afternoon with gusty outflow winds and a few lightning strikes being the main hazards. Probabilities remain to low at this time to mention VCTS for KWMC, KBAM, or KEKO in TAFs, but it could be included in later TAF updates should confidence warrant. && .FIRE WEATHER...Weak instability in combination with mid-level moisture this afternoon is expected to produce some cumulus cloud build-ups across much of the region. Latest guidance suggests a 5-10% chance of thunderstorms over mainly zones 427 425 469 and 470 today, which is too low of a confidence level to include any thunderstorms in the forecast. Fuels are not considered critical yet in any of these zones. Temperatures continue to trend higher, with most locations seeing rises in afternoon highs today in the 2-4 degree range. Much warmer on Saturday with temperature climbing by an additional 4-8 degrees. These well above normal temperatures will continue into early next week. && .HYDROLOGY...Temperatures trend warmer the rest of the week, with well above normal temperatures continuing into next week. Rises on some area streams and creeks coming off higher terrain are expected late this week, but for now not expecting any new flooding as the snowpack is greatly diminished. The mainstem Humboldt River near Comus is expected to drop below action today. Wildhorse Reservoir water level remains elevated from the spring snowmelt. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ 96/92/98/96