Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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845 FXUS66 KLOX 281024 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 324 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...28/225 AM. The marine layer pattern will continue through at least next weekend. Skies will be mostly clear save for night through morning low clouds and fog across the coasts and valleys. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal through through the weekend across the coasts and valleys. Breezy northwest to onshore winds will continue to be strongest each afternoon and evening for far interior areas and southwest Santa Barbara County. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...28/300 AM. Three days of very similar uneventful weather is on tap for Srn CA. At the upper levels there will be weak troffing with hgts near 583 dam. At the sfc there will be moderate (AM) to strong (PM) onshore flow from the W to E. In the S to N direction, however, there will only be weak flow. This pattern will bring a very typical May Grey pattern with night through morning low clouds fog reaching across the coasts and over most of the vlys. Clearing will be slower than usual and a few west facing beaches may see very slow or no clearing. The strong W to E gradient will produce gusty winds in the afternoons and early evenings across the interior exp across the western Antelope Vly and foothills where advisory level gusts are likely Wednesday afternoon. There will also be sundowner winds each evening and overnight as strong NW winds move into the waters off the Central Coast and then into and through the Santa Ynez range. Look for isolated advisory level gusts this evening and strong and more wide spread gusts Wednesday night. The Wednesday night gusts will likely reach advisory levels across the western portions of the SBA south coast with gusts between 40-50 mph range. Max temps will warm each day esp inland. Despite the warming the csts/vlys will remain below normal with max temps in the mid 60s to mid 70s. The interior (shielded from the sea breeze) will rise to well above normal with max temps reaching into the lower 90s across the Antelope Vly. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...28/324 AM. May Grey will seamlessly transition into June Gloom in the extended period. The weak troffing and strong onshore flow will continue through the period. The night through morning low clouds will continue unabated. As in the short term a few west facing beaches will likely not clear. Max temps will continue their bifurcated nature with the inland areas running a few degrees above normal, while the csts and vlys will continue to come in a few degrees below normal each day. && .AVIATION...28/0630Z. At 0520Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 3300 feet with a temperature of 18 C. High confidence in desert TAFs. Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by as much as 2 hours and cig hgts could be off by as much as 300 ft. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive as early as 19Z or as late as 23Z. Good confidence that there will be no significant east wind component. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds could arrive as early as 09Z. There is a 25 percent chance of 2SM BR conds 11Z-15Z. && .MARINE...27/825 PM. Moderate to high confidence in forecast. Across the outer waters, wind and seas are at Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. SCA conditions are expected to persist much of the time through Thursday night, except for the outer waters south of the Channel Islands - where conditions are likely to drop below SCA level late tonight and tomorrow morning. Winds will be strongest Tuesday and Wednesay afternoons/nights. There is a 20-30% chance of gales Tuesday and a 50-60% chance of gales Wednesday, thus a Gale Watch has been issued for all the outer waters Wednesday afternoon and night. Choppy steep seas will peak Wednesday morning into Thursday morning at around 10 to 13 feet, and SCA seas may linger as late as Thursday night. Across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, SCA winds have ended this evening. Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night, SCA level winds and seas are likely (60-80%), with a 15-25% chance of Gale Force winds Wednesday afternoon/evening. SCA seas may linger as late as Thursday night. Across the southern inner waters, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA winds Tuesday afternoon and evening. On Wednesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA winds across the western portion of the Channel, with a 20-30% chance of Gale Force winds. South of the Channel Islands, conditions are expected to remain below SCA level until Wednesday afternoon. At that time there is a 30% chance of SCA wind and/or seas. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Lund/Schoenfeld/Smith SYNOPSIS...30 weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox