905
FXUS66 KLOX 151249
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
549 AM PDT Sat Mar 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...15/304 AM.

A drier and warmer weather pattern will establish through the
weekend as high pressure aloft builds over the region. A tight
pressure gradient in place in the wake of the storm will relax
today, but breezy northerly winds will continue through this
evening across portions of the areas. Some cooling will develop
early next week with a chance of showers between Monday and
Tuesday, then a drying trend will establish with some gusty
northerly winds at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...15/413 AM.

A zonal flow pattern is in place across the region this morning
as a storm system that brought precipitation yesterday and last
night exits the region. Some clouds with light showers remain
banked up against the northern slopes of the mountains early this
morning, along with some gusty winds. A tight northerly pressure
gradient is starting to relax early this morning and the wind
advisory headlines have been allowed to expire.

High pressure to the west over the eastern Pacific Ocean will
build into the region through the late tonight. Skies will clear
through tonight as subsidence aloft will entrain some drier air
above. A warming and drying trend will develop across the
region through the weekend, but temperatures will still remain on
the cool side of normal. Enough of an onshore flow, albeit weakly,
will remain in place to keep temperatures cooler than normal and
the threat of stratus clouds across the coastal sections tonight
and into Sunday morning, and again on Sunday night and into Monday
morning. As there is less confidence in low cloud field occurring,
the forecast keeps out mention of any low clouds for now, but
there is a moderate-to-high chance of low clouds and fog on Sunday
night and into Monday ahead of the next storm system.

The next system will move into the Central Coast of California
just slightly after daybreak on Monday and bring light to moderate
rainfall to areas of north of Point Conception. There is a lot of
uncertainty with the front and the low-level flow pattern as the
front progresses south and east on Monday. There is a high chance
that Southland could be mostly dry, except for the San Gabriel
Valley and eastern Los Angeles County. More forecast ensembles
are falling inline with a lesser number of solutions in
suggesting rain for KOXR and KLAX. This would imply that the
northwesterly low-level flow may win out and downsloping might
occur into southern and central Ventura County and western Los
Angeles County. Rainfall amounts will be a quarter of an inch or
less with the storm, potentially trace amounts to a few hundredth
south of Point Conception (if at all). 850 mb temperature means
near KSDB drop below zero to near -2 degrees Celsius on Tuesday
morning, thus snow levels will likely drop to at least the
mountain pass levels, such as the Tejon Pass on the Grapevine. If
700 mb temperatures get down to near -11 degrees Celsius, the snow
level could locally drop to between 3000 and 3500 feet in heavier
precipitation. With the limited moisture in the system, a dusting
to an inch or two of snow is possible.

Gusty winds are likely with this system as the cold air packing
along the front will likely bring gales to the coastal waters and
advisory level winds into most coastal and valley areas on Monday
afternoon and evening. As the front exits, a tightening northerly
pressure gradient will bring at least advisory level winds to the
Interstate 5 Corridor and across southern Santa Barbara County.
Wind headlines and/or winter weather headlines will likely be
needed as soon as the confidence in the finer details starts to
come together.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...15/414 AM.

Gusty winds and lingering showers could occur into Tuesday
morning along the northern slopes of the mountains, but a drying
trend should develop. Some winds could increase again on Tuesday
afternoon and night, but they should be weaker than Monday night.
A cool pattern will linger into Thursday, and potentially through
the remainder of the week. Overnight low temperatures break away
from NBM values on Wednesday night and Thursday morning to
emphasize the potential for frost and freeze conditions,
especially across the interior valleys.

Another weak weather system will move over the region for late
next week and potentially bring another burst of northerly winds
for the period, but the system looks to be too dry to produce any
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1248Z.

At 12Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Clouds were confined mainly to interior sections of SLO/SBA
Counties and to the mtns of L.A./VTU Counties. Conds were mostly
IFR to VLIFR there. There were patchy low clouds in southern
portions of the Central Coast with mostly IFR conds. Skies should
clear in most areas by mid to late morning. Then, expect MVFR
conds in most areas thru late tonight. However, some stratus is
likely across portions of the Central Coast, in the mtns and
across coastal L.A. County with low MVFR to LIFR conds expected.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF, There is a 20-30%
chance that skies will remain clear tonight. There is a 20%
chance of an east wind of 7 to 9 kt from 10Z-16Z Sun.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF with VFR conds thru the pd.

&&

.MARINE...15/531 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) seas will continue in the outer waters thru late tonight.
NW winds will also be near or above SCA levels in most of the
outer waters thru late tonight, though they may drop below SCA
level for a few hours this morning in northern areas. For the
inner waters and in the Santa Barbara Channel, winds will be above
SCA levels thru mid morning, then again late this morning into
this evening. There is a 30% chance that a SCA will be needed in
the inner waters north of Pt Sal this afternoon and evening.

By Sunday morning, winds and seas should be below SCA levels and
will remain so thru Mon morning. SCA level NW winds are likely in
the outer waters Mon afternoon thru late Tue night, and again Wed
night. There is a 40% chance of Gale force winds in the outer
waters late Mon thru Tue evening.

Across the inner waters and the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA level
winds are likely in the afternoon thru late night hours Mon/Tue.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM PDT this
      morning for zones 353-376>382. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox