Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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262 FXUS66 KLOX 280635 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1135 PM PDT Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...27/823 PM. The marine layer pattern will continue through next Monday. Varying amounts of night and morning low clouds and fog will affect the coast and valleys, otherwise mostly clear skies will prevail. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal through Tuesday then warm to near normal to a few degrees above normal through the weekend. Breezy northwest to onshore winds will continue to be strongest each afternoon and evening for far interior areas and southwest Santa Barbara County. && .SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...27/822 PM. At upper levels, a weak upper level trough of low pressure will prevail across northern and central California, but heights gradually rise across our region the next couple of days. Near the surface, strong onshore flow will continue with LAX-Daggett pressure gradient expected to peak in the +7 to + 8 mb range each afternoon through Thursday. Current satellite imagery showing low clouds filling in across portions of the Central Coast and LA county coast. The marine layer depth is expected to gradually shrink the next couple of nights due to the rising heights, with low clouds expected to fill in across most coastal and coastal valley locations. The low clouds should clear to or off the coast for the most part each afternoon. Gusty onshore winds are somewhat weaker and less widespread across the Antelope Valley this evening, however still seeing some local wind gusts to around 40 mph near Lake Palmdale. Many interior areas saw warming today, with another degree or two of warming expected on Tuesday with little change into Wednesday. High temperatures in the Antelope Valley will be approaching 90 degrees. Sundowner winds expected to strengthen on Tuesday night and more so on Wednesday night, likely reaching advisory levels across western portions, with gusts in the 40-50 mph range. W-NW winds are also expected to ramp up across the I-5 corridor and Antelope Valley Tuesday night through Wednesday, potentially reaching advisory levels. *** from previous discussion *** Temps should remain several degrees below normal Tue, except increasing to a few degrees above normal for the interior areas including some of the mtns and into the Antelope Vly. By Wed, temps will turn a little bit warmer with highs near normal to a few degrees above normal for many areas. On Thu, most areas should have even warmer temps to near normal to several degrees above normal. Highs for much of the inland coast, vlys and lower mtns should be in the 70s to lower 80s Tue and in the mid 70s to mid 80s Wed and Thu, except warming into the 80s to around 90 for the SLO/SBA County interior vlys. The warmest areas should be in the Antelope Vly, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 thru Wed then increasing to the low to mid 90s for Thu. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...27/147 PM. Not a whole lot of change can be expected in the extended period. It looks like a flat upper level ridge with H5 heights around 583-584 dam will affect the region on Fri, then weak upper level troffiness should persist Sat thru Mon (according to the mean ensembles) with H5 heights around 582-584 dam. Good onshore pressure gradients to the N and E will help to keep the marine layer pattern over the forecast area Fri thru Mon. Widespread night and morning low clouds and fog are expected for the coast and vlys, moving farthest inland Sun and Mon, including into the northern SLO County interior vlys, as the marine inversion deepens. Otherwise, mostly clear skies can be expected thru the period, except for lingering low clouds each day for Catalina Island. Just minor day-to-day changes in temps are forecast, with readings ranging from a few degrees below normal to a few degrees above normal depending on location, but the warmest temps should be for the interior vlys, lwr mtns and deserts. Afternoon highs for the inland coast and vlys should be in the 70s to around 80 each day, except into the 80s to near 90 for the interior vlys as well as lower mtns, and generally into the lower 90s in the Antelope Vly. && .AVIATION...28/0630Z. At 0520Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 3300 feet with a temperature of 18 C. High confidence in desert TAFs. Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by as much as 2 hours and cig hgts could be off by as much as 300 ft. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive as early as 19Z or as late as 23Z. Good confidence that there will be no significant east wind component. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds could arrive as early as 09Z. There is a 25 percent chance of 2SM BR conds 11Z-15Z. && .MARINE...27/825 PM. Moderate to high confidence in forecast. Across the outer waters, wind and seas are at Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. SCA conditions are expected to persist much of the time through Thursday night, except for the outer waters south of the Channel Islands - where conditions are likely to drop below SCA level late tonight and tomorrow morning. Winds will be strongest Tuesday and Wednesay afternoons/nights. There is a 20-30% chance of gales Tuesday and a 50-60% chance of gales Wednesday, thus a Gale Watch has been issued for all the outer waters Wednesday afternoon and night. Choppy steep seas will peak Wednesday morning into Thursday morning at around 10 to 13 feet, and SCA seas may linger as late as Thursday night. Across the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, SCA winds have ended this evening. Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night, SCA level winds and seas are likely (60-80%), with a 15-25% chance of Gale Force winds Wednesday afternoon/evening. SCA seas may linger as late as Thursday night. Across the southern inner waters, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA winds Tuesday afternoon and evening. On Wednesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA winds across the western portion of the Channel, with a 20-30% chance of Gale Force winds. South of the Channel Islands, conditions are expected to remain below SCA level until Wednesday afternoon. At that time there is a 30% chance of SCA wind and/or seas. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Gomberg/Sirard AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Lund/Schoenfeld/Smith SYNOPSIS...Sirard weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox