386
FXUS64 KLUB 010047
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
747 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...
Issued at 747 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A well-defined bow echo has developed to the north of Clovis, NM,
and is accelerating in forward-speed with a distinct rear-inflow
jet present. Wind speeds measured by the KFDX WSR-88D are near to
slightly in excess of 60 kt within the lowest 500 ft AGL, and the
airmass ahead of this system is primed with warm, moist,
southeasterly inflow observed in recent West Texas Mesonet data
amidst strong instability aloft per recent mesoscale analysis.

The threat for widespread damaging winds is increasing across the
extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and the northwestern South
Plains, with several gusts between 50-70 mph expected as the bow
moves into the CWA. Isolated, significant wind gusts may exceed 80
mph. Wind-driven hail may accompany this bow if it holds together,
and trends in recent observations and high-resolution guidance
indicate that it will. Based on its current speed, which is to the
southeast at 30 kt (40 mph), this bow echo is expected to arrive
near the Parmer-to-Bailey County lines within the next 45 minutes.

Sincavage

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Southeasterly surface flow continues to sustain moisture east of a
dryline from the Big Bend region that becomes increasingly diffuse
northward into the South Plains. Thunderstorms have already begun to
fire in the high terrain of New Mexico and are expected to propagate
eastward through the afternoon and evening. Subsidence in the mid-
levels and a cap near 750mb should prevent any convection from
forming over the South Plains. However, northwest flow aloft may
direct storms in northeast New Mexico toward the forecast area
during the overnight hours. If storms enter the area, favorable
moisture and instability will sustain convection at first, with the
potential for severe wind gusts and a few instances of large hail
with stronger cores. However, as the boundary layer stabilizes
overnight, storm intensity should diminish. Because model guidance
is unclear on when this process will occur, the eastward and
southern extent of these storms is uncertain.

Tomorrow`s weather setup is similar to today, with moisture and
instability extending to the high terrain of New Mexico. The 500mb
ridge is expected to slide slightly eastward and should continue to
prevent convection over the forecast area during the afternoon.
However, because afternoon highs should near convective
temperatures, any surface boundary could provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. The current assumption is that
temperatures will remain just shy of convective temperatures,
keeping the CWA dry through the afternoon. Across New Mexico,
generally westerly flow aloft will allow storms to propagate
eastward towards the South Plains and Texas Panhandle into the
evening hours. Large hail and severe wind gusts are possible with
storms that move east into the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Storms over eastern New Mexico are expected to push eastward into
the FA tomorrow evening just as an upper shortwave moves across the
overhead ridge. While the highest risk for severe storms will be to
our west, some storms could still produce one inch hail and wind
gusts up to 60 mph. The upper shortwave should help sustain
convection through much of the night before exiting to our east by
sunrise. Models diverge with convective prospects Sunday afternoon
along a dryline. The GFS keeps convection suppressed with an
overhead ridge while the ECMWF keeps the upper ridge slightly to our
east. For the time being, a chance of thunderstorms will be kept in
the forecast given previous trends. Models agree with forming a
blocking pattern over the southwestern CONUS by mid week, but there
is some differences on placement of the upper ridge. The GFS brings
the upper ridge over the southcentral CONUS vs the ECMWF which keeps
the ridge to our west and places the FA under northwesterly flow.
Models, however, agree with having a cold front push through by
Wednesday helping to cool highs from the triple digits area wide to
the low/upper 90s. They also agree with area wide precip chances
late next week after the FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Continued VFR outside of any TS later tonight. One prominent TS
about 90NW LBB stands a good chance of flourishing as it moves SE
through the evening, and likely dealing some impacts to the LBB
and PVW airspace. Outside chance of some stratus developing
toward daybreak, but this looks to stay well SW of LBB and PVW.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


MESOSCALE UPDATE...09
SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...93