003
FXUS64 KLUB 010527
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1227 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Southeasterly surface flow continues to sustain moisture east of a
dryline from the Big Bend region that becomes increasingly diffuse
northward into the South Plains. Thunderstorms have already begun to
fire in the high terrain of New Mexico and are expected to propagate
eastward through the afternoon and evening. Subsidence in the mid-
levels and a cap near 750mb should prevent any convection from
forming over the South Plains. However, northwest flow aloft may
direct storms in northeast New Mexico toward the forecast area
during the overnight hours. If storms enter the area, favorable
moisture and instability will sustain convection at first, with the
potential for severe wind gusts and a few instances of large hail
with stronger cores. However, as the boundary layer stabilizes
overnight, storm intensity should diminish. Because model guidance
is unclear on when this process will occur, the eastward and
southern extent of these storms is uncertain.

Tomorrow`s weather setup is similar to today, with moisture and
instability extending to the high terrain of New Mexico. The 500mb
ridge is expected to slide slightly eastward and should continue to
prevent convection over the forecast area during the afternoon.
However, because afternoon highs should near convective
temperatures, any surface boundary could provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. The current assumption is that
temperatures will remain just shy of convective temperatures,
keeping the CWA dry through the afternoon. Across New Mexico,
generally westerly flow aloft will allow storms to propagate
eastward towards the South Plains and Texas Panhandle into the
evening hours. Large hail and severe wind gusts are possible with
storms that move east into the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Storms over eastern New Mexico are expected to push eastward into
the FA tomorrow evening just as an upper shortwave moves across the
overhead ridge. While the highest risk for severe storms will be to
our west, some storms could still produce one inch hail and wind
gusts up to 60 mph. The upper shortwave should help sustain
convection through much of the night before exiting to our east by
sunrise. Models diverge with convective prospects Sunday afternoon
along a dryline. The GFS keeps convection suppressed with an
overhead ridge while the ECMWF keeps the upper ridge slightly to our
east. For the time being, a chance of thunderstorms will be kept in
the forecast given previous trends. Models agree with forming a
blocking pattern over the southwestern CONUS by mid week, but there
is some differences on placement of the upper ridge. The GFS brings
the upper ridge over the southcentral CONUS vs the ECMWF which keeps
the ridge to our west and places the FA under northwesterly flow.
Models, however, agree with having a cold front push through by
Wednesday helping to cool highs from the triple digits area wide to
the low/upper 90s. They also agree with area wide precip chances
late next week after the FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Extensive line of TSRA about 20NM west of a line from CDS to SNK
at 0520z will continue to shift eastward through the next several
hours. -TSRA at LBB and PVW will gradually end over the next hour,
with a period of +TSRA with very strong and erratic winds likely
at CDS between 06-08z. VFR is expected outside of convection with
TS clearing the entire area by the early morning hours. There is a
very low chance of MVFR CIGs at all sites near sunrise Saturday,
but chances of this occurring are much too low for specific TAF
mention. Otherwise, VFR will continue through most of the day on
Saturday, with additional TS possible at all sites beginning on
Saturday evening.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...30