518
FXUS64 KLUB 030830
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
330 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Mostly zonal flow aloft today with surface troughing developing over
West Texas. Westerly downsloping surface winds this afternoon will
give way to temperatures warming into the upper 90s to triple
digits. A surface low will dig south into the South Plains from the
Texas Panhandle this afternoon, which will push the dryline farther
east. Models vary on the exact placement of the dryline by this
afternoon, as this is highly dependent on where the surface low is
positioned. The blend of models keeps the dryline draped north to
south across portions of the far eastern two stacks of counties
(Hall down to Kent and Childress down to Stonewall). East of the
dryline, dewpoints in the 60s will be maintained with southerly
surface winds. West of the dryline dewpoints will crater towards the
20s across the far western South Plains. Fire weather concerns will
remain low despite the very dry conditions across the west as winds
remain generally less than 15 mph. Spotty relative humidity driven
elevated fire weather concerns may be possible across the far
western South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle where less
rainfall has occurred over the last week.

An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible again this afternoon
across the far southeast Texas Panhandle and eastern Rolling Plains.
An MCS has developed over southwest Kansas this morning with models
indicating an outflow boundary racing southward and stalling from
northwest to southeast across the southcentral Texas Panhandle
into the northeast Rolling Plains. Between the outflow and
dryline, the two boundaries will be the focus for storm
initiation this afternoon. Additional lift will be provided by a
weak disturbance in the zonal flow aloft. Point soundings near
Childress, Texas this afternoon reveal a very buoyant airmass with
MLCAPE values in excess of 2000-3000+ J/kg under a strong
elevated mixed layer. Bulk shear values are around 30 knots, but
increase to around 40-50 knots through the evening hours with the
increasing low level jet. Similar to yesterday`s setup, if a storm
or two can initiate, the main threats would be very large hail
and damaging wind gusts. Very steep lapse rates of 8+ degC/km in
the hail growth zone supports significantly large hail of 2"+. The
main threat for a tornado exists along the aforementioned stalled
outflow boundary. If a storm can intersect and latch onto the
boundary, the tornado threat will increase. Otherwise, the tornado
threat will remain low elsewhere. The severe weather threat will
likely be east of the forecast area by the late evening hours as
any storms that develop move east and cooling temperatures
increase the CIN across the far southeast Texas Panhandle and
eastern Rolling Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A broad upper level ridge axis over the eastern Pacific will begin
to edge eastward on Tuesday with the corresponding increase in layer
thicknesses combined with dry downslope surface flow expected to
bring a return of triple digit temperatures to portions of the
region on Tuesday afternoon. Current forecast keeps highs a few
degrees shy of daily records on Tuesday, but highs will still reach
into the low 100s area-wide except for western portions of the
southern TX Panhandle. Surface moisture will remain relatively
robust over the far SE TX Panhandle near a deepening surface low,
and a weak disturbance within NW flow aloft may result in an
isolated storm over this region Tuesday evening. However, this
potential is much better to our east in better proximity to the
surface low and will therefore keep the forecast dry on Tuesday for
now. Light easterly surface flow will return on Wednesday behind a
weak cool front, but temperatures will still have little trouble
warming into the 90s as layer thicknesses remain elevated. The
aforementioned upper ridge axis is progged to center over the Four
Corners region during the mid to late week period which will
result in an overall weakening of northwest flow aloft over West
Texas and continuing above normal temperatures. Most guidance
suggests a bit of residual moisture lingering beneath the ridge
which may support a few pulse-type thunderstorms Thu-Fri
particularly over the southern TX Panhandle and northern South
Plains and Rolling Plains. Although models diverge significantly
regarding the evolution of the upper pattern heading into the
weekend, some solutions suggest a period of stronger northwest
flow aloft may materialize which would result in slightly better
chances for evening/overnight storms over the weekend. However,
above normal temperatures still look likely to continue through
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Confidence is low on whether low clouds will develop this morning
at CDS, thus all three sites were kept in VFR for now. There is a
low potential for an isolated thunderstorm near CDS this
afternoon. No mention was given in this TAF issuance given the
uncertainty. Otherwise southerly winds of 5 to 15 knots through
the TAF period at all three sites.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...11