Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
013 FXUS64 KLUB 162346 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 646 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Upper-level low is currently spinning over central New Mexico and will continue to approach the forecast area this evening. As it does so, lift aloft will continue to increase. As of 2:30 pm, thunderstorms are developing along the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and will slowly advance towards the forecast area. A tongue of instability is present near the Texas / New Mexico state line which should allow these storms to continue to strengthen as they approach our forecast area. With relatively cool surface conditions though behind the cold front most of this activity will remain elevated hence hail and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats with this activity. There are some indications that this activity will attempt to congeal into a line as we go into the evening which may increase the wind threat however with a stabilizing boundary layer widespread severe gusts are not anticipated. This activity should weaken near the I-27/US-87 corridor as the storms outrun the instability axis with general showers and thunderstorms continuing into the Rolling Plains. Lift will continue to shift east overnight bringing an end to our precipitation chances late tonight. The upper- level trough will continue hanging over the forecast area on Friday although with clearing skies and increasing heights high temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Enough moisture and lift may remain over the eastern Rolling Plains on Friday afternoon for some additional thunderstorm development however it currently appears that this should be just east of our forecast area. /WI && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Upper-level ridging will begin to expand over the forecast area Saturday and Sunday. This will lead to increasing temperatures Saturday and Sunday with high temperatures mostly in the 90s, however a few locations may hit the century mark on Sunday across the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains. The upper-level ridge is not expected to become as established overhead as previous forecast guidance has indicated with southwest flow aloft returning over our area by Sunday. A few shortwaves are expected to move through the flow Sunday through next week however with warm temperatures aloft a cap is expected to be in place and with weak surface forcing it remains uncertain as to whether any thunderstorm activity will develop across primarily the Rolling Plains. Otherwise temperatures will remain warm through the middle of next week. A more impressive shortwave should approach the area around the middle of next week which may lead to more widespread thunderstorm activity but again confidence remains low at this time however a surface cold front will move south Tuesday bringing slightly cooler temperatures to the area on Wednesday. /WI && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are impacting KLBB and KPVW at the start of this TAF period with light rain and lightning expected to continue through the evening hours. Farther east at KCDS thunderstorms are approaching the airport at the start of this TAF period and will continue through late tonight. Once this activity comes to an end VFR conditions will continue through the end of the TAF period. Winds are gusty with the thunderstorm activity however once the thunderstorm activity ends winds will also become light and variable. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...58