Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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604 FXUS64 KLUB 252339 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 639 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 As of early afternoon the dryline has begun to make steady eastward progress eastward as it approaches the Caprock escarpment. Ahead of the dryline moisture advection has been robust with a tongue of surface dew point temperatures in excess of 70 degrees extending northward through the Rolling Plains. The speed of the eastward progress of the dryline will be key on whether there will be convective initiation across the eastern column or two of counties mid to late afternoon before the dry air overtakes the entire forecast area. A slight chance mention along the eastern border of the area pre-00Z still looks reasonable with a dry forecast beyond that. The forecast area will then remain in a post-dryline air mass through the remainder of the forecast period with winds veering to west and likely staying a bit elevated overnight before becoming a bit breezy with mixing Sunday morning and then a gradual decrease in speeds as a surface trough settles southward through the Panhandle. Dry air and downslope winds will result in another day of temperatures well above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The overall pattern will be quiet for at least Monday passive cold front moving into the region. An upper ridge will set up just to our west on Tuesday. Southeasterly surface flow will allow for 50/60 dew points to return to the FA ahead of a dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Models continue to develop a weakness on the east side of the upper ridge Tuesday afternoon as the dryline is passing through the FA, allowing convective development along the dryline. Models have pushed convective initiation further east than was progged yesterday (along the Texas/New Mexico state line) as they have the axis of the upper ridge slightly more eastward. The GFS is more robust with convection while the ECMWF keeps convection more tame and mostly to our east. The GFS has convective initiation along the I27/US 87 corridor. While upper level dynamics leave more to be desired, there is still a threat for storms to be strong to severe with hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. Models continue to differ with the prospects for additional precip (and the overall upper pattern) Wednesday into the weekend. The GFS is more friendly in terms of precip chances with shower and thunderstorms being possible mid week into the weekend as several upper level weaknesses move across the region. The ECMWF is less generous with upper lift but does bring a strong cold front southward early Saturday which helps to cool temps back into the low 80s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all three TAF sites. As the low level jet picks up late tonight, low level wind shear is possible at CDS through the early morning hours. Winds will diminish and veer to the northwest overnight before ramping up again through the morning hours tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions continue to look like a possibility mainly across the western South Plains Sunday afternoon where relative humidity will again fall into single digits. The biggest question for Sunday will be wind speeds. After an initial increase in wind speeds mid-morning as higher momentum air aloft is mixed southward, a surface trough will move southward into the forecast area with a corresponding decrease in wind speeds. How far south this trough gets will have the most effect on wind speeds, but at this time it appears areas near the New Mexico state line could have a fairly extended period of elevated conditions with RFTI values a solid 2 to 3 and potential for brief periods of higher values should wind speeds not decrease in line with current expectations.&& .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ021>023- 027>029-033>035-039>041. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ021>023- 027>029-033>035-039>041. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...11