Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
343 FXUS64 KLUB 311802 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 102 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Relatively weak west-northwesterly flow aloft remains in place over the region early this morning with a mature MCS over central TX and scattered elevated showers over the TX Panhandle at 3 AM. There is still poor consensus among models for the potential re-invigoration of thunderstorms over our area early this morning. The aforementioned scattered activity over the TX Panhandle has thus far failed to maintain intensity as it shifts southward. However, water vapor channel imagery highlights several southward-moving midlevel waves which still have the potential to ignite additional elevated convection as they intercept a modest low level theta-e ridge over the South Plains and Rolling Plains. Given the uncertainty, will maintain broad-brushed PoPs across most of the forecast area through the early to mid morning hours. Prospects for additional thunderstorms this afternoon and evening appear to be more limited today compared to earlier this week. Surface moisture will be plentiful throughout the day with dewpoints generally progged to remain above 60F, but the combination of a relatively stable airmass in addition to modest shortwave ridging building aloft is expected to largely prevent storm development locally through the daytime hours. That being said, convection is still expected to develop over the New Mexico high terrain today, and with weak westerlies in place aloft, this activity does have the potential to shift into our western zones late this evening and tonight. If this does occur, steep midlevel lapse rates will maintain relatively impressive elevated instability, but overall weak shear magnitudes should keep severe potential fairly limited. Considerable uncertainty exists regarding how far east this activity will progress tonight, and given a lack of model consensus have kept PoPs relatively low tonight with highest storm chances confined to areas along the TX/NM state line. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Mostly zonal flow with weak ridging Saturday will give way to westerly winds aloft. Southerly surface winds will bring low level moisture and surface dewpoints in the 60s across the forecast area. With upslope surface flow, temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal in the lower to mid 80s. Convective temperatures are still expected to be met by Saturday afternoon with storms fire along the higher terrain across eastern New Mexico and moving eastward through the evening. A shortwave disturbance in the flow aloft should act to keep storms going through the night across the South and Rolling Plains. Storm severity will likely decrease, but the environment will still be capable of a few storms with isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. Heading into Sunday, the dryline will setup farther east across the South Plains. Southerly surface winds ahead of the dryline will give way to increased low level moisture and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Soundings indicate convective temperatures will be breached during the afternoon hours with highs topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Models indicate a shortwave disturbance in the flow aloft that will help to drive thunderstorm development and intensification through the afternoon and evening hours along and east of the I-27 corridor. Instability parameters support a few strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Early next week will feature very hot and dry conditions. Monday, westerly flow will persist aloft with the return of downsloping southwesterly surface winds as the dryline mixes eastward. Temperatures will creep into the triple digits at a few locations across the High Plains of Texas. By Tuesday, the next upper level trough will deepen and dig into the Northern Plains. Lee cyclogenesis will develop across the Texas Panhandle with very warm downsloping winds giving way to widespread triple digit heat across West Texas. A weak cold front will dive south across the area Wednesday morning with a return to highs in the 90s. A weak ridge will also build in aloft with several disturbances in the flow aloft and a small chance for precipitation to return to the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of this TAF period. Southeasterly winds may increase to around 15kt at LBB and PVW through the late afternoon/early evening before diminishing late this evening. Thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon in the high terrain of eastern New Mexico and shift east through the evening. It is uncertain how far east these storms will propagate; therefore, prevailing thunderstorm mentions have been left out of the LBB and PVW 18Z TAFs. In the overnight hours, a line of thunderstorms is expected to move southeastward through the Texas Panhandle towards CDS, potentially clipping PVW. The timing of this complex is uncertain, but models indicate that storms may affect CDS at some point between 04-09Z. Hazards with these storms include frequent lightning, strong winds, and heavy rain, which may lower visibility. With abundant low-level moisture, low clouds may develop late tonight across the region, but low confidence precludes a mention in the TAF at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...58/DF