909
FXUS64 KLUB 292347
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
647 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Generally quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of today.
Cloud cover will build over much of the area limiting instability.
An upper shortwave will track across the Panhandle later tonight
through early Thursday morning. The greatest chances of showers and
thunderstorms will occur near the trough axis over the far southern
Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains for this time period. This
reflects many of the latest CAM runs. Given the higher dewpoints,
severe weather cannot be completely ruled out, however it will be
much more isolated compared to that of yesterday.

A brief lull is expected between Thursday morning and early
afternoon. Latest models show a dryline developing slightly farther
west than overnight runs. Temperatures have been increased slightly
from the previous forecast as well. High-res model instability
currently shows between 2500-3500 J/kg of SBCAPE. A relatively potent
upper shortwave should provide more than enough forcing to initiate
convection Thursday afternoon, with storms expected to develop along
the dryline roughly on a north-south line running from Castro
through Terry Counties. These storms are likely to become severe as
they track eastward with potentially damaging winds and large hail.
Tornadoes are unlikely but cannot be ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Thunderstorm activity should to be ongoing Thursday night, likely
in the form of a MCS moving through much of the Rolling Plains.
Severe threats Thursday night will likely transition to damaging
straight-line winds and flash flooding. We have low confidence in
the convective forecast for Friday. Much of it will depend on the
extent of any lingering MCS activity east and south of the
forecast area Friday morning and whether or not we`ll see a strong
intrusion of cool, stable outflow air back west through the
forecast area.
Weak ridging in the wake of the exiting trough should keep
t-storm chances limited overall, and storm organization, however,
with a moist airmass in place, if the atmosphere can recover and
the cap can be breached we could see at least isolated t-storm
activity Friday afternoon and evening. Saturday looks like the day
with the most potential in the extended for scattered t-storm
activity and severe weather potential as another shortwave trough
approaches the region and encounters a moist and potentially
unstable airmass. The potential for heavy rainfall also looks
to be present.

For Sunday into the middle of next week, ridging looks to build
over the 4-corners region into West Texas. This will bring warmer
and drier conditions in general. However, the medium range
guidance isn`t in complete agreement on how strongly the ridge
builds over our area, so we can`t completely rule out t-storm
chances at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

MVFR ceilings likely to develop early Thursday morning and affect
each of the terminals then dissipating toward mid-morning. Will be
watching scattered TS across northeastern New Mexico this evening
to see whether they are able to develop into a system that moves
across the Panhandle overnight with potential to affect primarily
KPVW and/or KCDS. Currently model guidance is mixed on that
potential and will leave mention out for now and watch trends
through the night. Confidence is reasonably high on TS development
Thursday afternoon near or west of the I-27 corridor and have
inserted a 30 percent TS mention into KLBB and KPVW forecasts.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...07