858
FXUS64 KLZK 201146 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
640 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Ridging will be noted the next couple of days from the Texas Gulf
Coast to the southeast United States. This will result in above
to well above average temperatures, and afternoon readings
reaching into the lower 90s today/Tuesday in central/southern
sections of the state.

Active weather will stay mostly to our north/west. Severe weather
occurred in the central/portions of the southern Plains overnight,
with a complex of storms in northeast Oklahoma early this morning.
The complex will weaken as dawn approaches, with maybe a few
leftover showers in northwest Arkansas as the day begins.

Otherwise, we will watch a potent storm system go from the
southwest United States around the ridge toward the upper Midwest
tonight/Tuesday. The system will attempt to drag a cold front
toward Arkansas, with the front knocking on the door and
approaching the northwest corner of the state as the period
ends.

As the front nears, there is at least some chance of showers and
thunderstorms north of west of Little Rock Tuesday night. The
front will limp into the region during the long term, and the
pattern will become more unsettled.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

A frontal boundary will be approaching from the NW at the start of
the long term period...gradually slowing or stalling by Wed
afternoon/evening across far NWRN AR as flow aloft will be parallel
to this front. Convection will remain likely along/ahead of this
front across much of the CWA from Wed afternoon through early Thu as
weak upper waves pass over AR. A more potent upper wave will lift NE
over the state late Thu into early Fri...with more convection
expected.

The threat for organized SVR storms looks limited initially on
Wed...mainly dependent on the instability/SHR in place with the
front stalling. However...strong to SVR TSRA will be possible
along/ahead of the front where there will be plenty of instability
and some SHR...with large hail and damaging winds the primary
threats expected. The potential for some more strong/SVR TSRA will
again be possible Thu/Thu night as the more potent upper wave passes
overhead. Right now...there remain uncertainty on where the heaviest
rainfall axis may develop...but some areas could see the potential
for some heavy rainfall by the end of the week.

Beyond Thu night/Fri morning...the unsettled pattern looks to
continue into the weekend as flow aloft remains WRLY/SWRLY.
However...this activity will primarily be due to afternoon heating
and any smaller mesoscale forcing mechanisms. The threat for
organized SVR TSRA will also remain limited as a result...but a few
strong/SVR TSRA will still be possible into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected today/tonight, with mainly high
clouds through the period and a few cumulus clouds this afternoon.
Showers in the northwest early this morning will quickly dissipate.
The wind today will be south/southeast at 6 to 12 knots with 16 to
20 knot gusts in places.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     88  69  89  71 /   0   0   0  20
Camden AR         92  68  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       87  67  87  67 /  10   0   0  40
Hot Springs AR    91  69  90  71 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  91  71  92  72 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     91  70  91  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      90  69  89  71 /   0   0   0  20
Mountain Home AR  87  68  88  68 /  10   0   0  40
Newport AR        89  69  90  71 /   0   0   0  20
Pine Bluff AR     91  70  91  73 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   91  69  90  71 /   0   0   0  20
Searcy AR         90  67  90  71 /   0   0   0  20
Stuttgart AR      90  70  90  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...46