Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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188 FXUS64 KLZK 081650 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Cloud cover and precip have kept temps from warming much if at all across portions of central to NRN AR so far. As a result...have increased POPs late this morning lingering into the early afternoon hrs across central to NRN/NERN sections before convection should dissipate. As a result of this cloud cover/precip...will lower temps across NRN and portions of central AR for this afternoon. Otherwise...no major changes in the near term forecast at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Sfc high pressure was centered to the south and east of AR early this mrng, allowing for a light S/SE wind flow over the state. Predawn readings were mainly in the 70s. Meanwhile, cont to monitor a complex of storms moving into southern MO. CAMS cont to show that some of this activity wl affect northern AR towards daybreak, with an expected weakening trend later this morning. As the aforementioned convection winds down later this mrng, a remnant outflow bndry is expected to sag southward towards central AR. While support is limited to provide a focus for organized convection, a few storms (<20%) could form along the bndry this aftn. With limited confidence, have not included a mention in the fcst attm. Meanwhile, south winds wl cont to increase acrs the FA today, allowing high temps to top out in the lower and mid 90s at most locations. Combined with increasing RH levels, aftn heat indices will climb well into the 90s. Cannot rule out some locations apchg the century mark, mainly along the AR River valley. For the remainder of the weekend, NW flow aloft wl persist over the Mid-South. Additional rounds of convection are progged to form as a series of SWT`s traverse the region. Current thoughts are that the highest PoPs wl rmn concentrated over the north half of the FA Sun and Sun night. Cannot rule of a few strong/severe storms, with damaging winds the main threat. Repeated rounds of storms acrs the same general area also raises the concern for flash flooding potential. Wl cont to monitor rainfall trends ovr the next 12 to 24 hours for the possibility of any headlines. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The long term fcst begins in the wake of a cdfrnt fm the weekend. Most guidance indicates the frnt should be moving acrs Srn AR towards the Gulf Coast region on Mon mrng, w/ lingering precip along the leading edge of the frnt. Thru the day Mon, Nrly sfc winds wl usher in drier air, w/ humidity levels tapering down, and afternoon high temps trending towards more seasonal values. Dry condns, seasonal temps, and lower humidity readings should prevail thru at least early Wed, before broad sfc high pressure begins to drift Ewrd over Appalachia, and Srly sfc flow resumes over the Srn Plains. A subtle H500 shortwave/vorticity max is progged to develop over the OK/TX panhandle... possibly a convectively enhanced or sourced upper level vorticity max... and maneuver thru weak upper background flow, ejecting acrs the ARKLATEX region Wed aftn. For now, low chc PoPs may be seen around the FA, particularly over Wrn to S/Wrn AR. Otherwise, intermittent low-chc PoPs and relatively dry condns are expected thru the remainder of next week, and Srly flow wl yield incrsg temps and humidity levels acrs the FA. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Convection continues to develop and move over central and portions of NRN AR late this morning...with some mention of this continuing for a couple more hrs or so before improving conditions will return. Mainly dry VFR conditions are expected into the evening hrs...but chances for convection look to return across NRN AR late tonight into Sun morning...and possibly Sun morning across central sections as a new cold front drops south into the state. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 87 72 82 62 / 80 40 50 20 Camden AR 93 72 94 68 / 0 0 10 10 Harrison AR 87 70 76 58 / 80 40 60 30 Hot Springs AR 92 72 93 66 / 20 0 20 20 Little Rock AR 91 74 92 68 / 40 10 30 20 Monticello AR 92 74 94 69 / 0 0 10 10 Mount Ida AR 92 72 92 66 / 20 10 10 20 Mountain Home AR 88 70 76 59 / 80 50 60 20 Newport AR 87 72 83 64 / 40 40 40 20 Pine Bluff AR 90 74 93 68 / 10 10 20 10 Russellville AR 90 72 90 66 / 40 10 40 20 Searcy AR 87 72 87 65 / 30 20 30 20 Stuttgart AR 89 74 90 67 / 30 10 20 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....72 AVIATION...62