926
FXUS64 KLZK 220614 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
114 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across
northern and northeast Arkansas through late this evening, as a
short-wave trough moves across the southern Midwest region and
northern Arkansas. The main threats with this activity will be heavy
rain with potential for localized flooding.

The aforementioned short-wave trough is moving along anticyclonic
flow associated with a widespread High situated across much of
the southern and southeastern CONUS. With the exception of
north/northeast AR, the rest of the state is experiencing mainly
hot and dry conditions through much of the weekend, with high
temperatures in the 90s expected. A heat advisory is in effect
across much of central to western portions of the CWA through
Saturday evening, with heat index values between 105-110F
forecast.

Showers and potential for storms will return by Sunday afternoon,
across northern portions of the state, spreading across much of the
rest of Arkansas by Monday midday, as a cold front pushes eastward
across the region. Widespread cloud cover and rainfall will keep
temperatures on the lower end across western and northern Arkansas
Monday, in the lower 70s to mid 80s. At this time, it looks like
central, southern and eastern Arkansas will have time to warm up to
the 90s Monday, before cloud cover and rain spread into these areas.
We can all look forward to much cooler air in the long term period
next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Significant changes are expected across the state at the start of
the period. H500 trough across the Central Plains will continue its
way toward the Great Lakes which will compress the srn H500 ridge
southward. At the sfc, a cold front will be making its way across
the state. This front will usher in cooler temperatures.

Through the middle to later part of next week, a second mid-level
trough looks to dive S-SE from the Northern Plains toward the Mid-MS
Valley. As this occurs it may intensify and become cutoff somewhere
in the vicinity of the state as H500 ridges flank it to the east and
west. At the sfc, ridging will settle in from the Great Lakes S-SW
toward the state. This will lead to a period of fairly cool
temperatures and some occasional rain chances/periodic cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Some additional convection looks to redevelop for Sun late
morning into the afternoon hrs...mainly across NRN AR. Chances
will then drop SE Sun night into Mon near the end of this TAF PD.
Winds should remain less than 10 kts sustained, w/ VFR condns
prevailing otherwise thru the day Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  70  83  65 /  10  20  50  60
Camden AR         93  70  89  68 /   0   0  20  30
Harrison AR       88  66  73  59 /  40  50  80  30
Hot Springs AR    94  71  87  65 /   0   0  50  30
Little Rock   AR  94  73  88  69 /   0  10  30  50
Monticello AR     94  71  91  70 /   0   0  10  20
Mount Ida AR      93  70  85  62 /  10  10  60  20
Mountain Home AR  88  67  76  61 /  40  50  80  50
Newport AR        90  70  84  67 /  10  20  40  60
Pine Bluff AR     94  71  89  68 /   0   0  20  40
Russellville AR   94  71  84  64 /  10  20  60  30
Searcy AR         92  70  86  66 /  10  10  40  60
Stuttgart AR      93  72  88  68 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...72