111
FXUS64 KLZK 030527
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Warm and humid conditions will remain in place across the region
through the short term portion of the forecast. Sfc analysis
doesn`t indicate much in the way of any distinguishable features
of interest.

Nearly zonal mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
southern US while ridging remains compressed to the southwest. A
series of H500 disturbances will approach the state in the mean
flow over the next couple of days. These impulses as well as any
residual boundaries from MCS activity will help influence the
development of TS activity across the area.

Much of the precip will likely be diurnally driven. Should severe
weather occur, damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall
would be the main concerns. Identifying the most likely corridors
of precip remains a challenge.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

An active weather pattern is expected through the first part of the
period. Surface high pressure will be situated just to the east and
southeast of the state as southerly flow supplies moisture into the
state around the high pressure. Aloft, a quasi-zonal pattern is
expected to set up allowing a couple of disturbances to track across
the area. By Thursday morning, the pattern is expected to break down
as a cold front passes through...bringing in high pressure. Calm and
dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday before unsettled
weather returns by the weekend.

As of this forecast package, severe weather is expected to remain on
the low side...but not zero. Should any severe weather materialize
with any MCS`s...damaging winds would be the main threat. QPF will
depend on where rainfall sets up and tracks. For the most part, many
areas across the state could see one to two inches through Friday
with locally higher amounts possible. Highest QPF amounts are
expected across northern locations.

Temperatures are expected to be on the warmer side with highs in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Convection across southern Arkansas continues to wane with time
but additional development will be possible on Monday as another
disturbance approaches. The exact timing and placement of the new
development is in question at this time. VFR conditions will
prevail for the majority of the period but MVFR to even brief IFR
conditions will be possible in and near convection. Winds overall
will be light and southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     86  69  85  71 /  40  40  30  50
Camden AR         87  73  88  71 /  40  30  10  10
Harrison AR       80  67  83  67 /  60  40  30  70
Hot Springs AR    84  69  87  71 /  40  20  20  30
Little Rock   AR  86  71  89  73 /  40  30  20  40
Monticello AR     84  73  90  74 /  30  20  20  10
Mount Ida AR      86  69  86  70 /  50  20  20  40
Mountain Home AR  86  67  84  68 /  50  40  30  70
Newport AR        85  70  87  72 /  40  40  40  50
Pine Bluff AR     83  72  89  73 /  40  20  20  20
Russellville AR   85  70  87  71 /  50  30  30  50
Searcy AR         84  70  87  71 /  40  40  30  50
Stuttgart AR      84  71  88  73 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...56