774
FXUS64 KLZK 021720 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Guidance continues to show a rather quiet albeit very warm Sunday is
in store for the forecast area. Surface observations are showing
some fog development ongoing across parts of the state but very
patchy in nature at this time. Temperature/dew point spreads
continue to support additional development of fog this morning and
have included it for a few hours for a large part of the area.

Otherwise, weak ridging in the nations mid section will provide warm
and humid conditions today with high temperatures in the 80s to
lower 90s. Even diurnally driven convection will be difficult to
come by and opted to leave it out of the forecast but I would not be
surprised if a storm or two popped off in this environment.

Guidance does continue to show an overall progressive pattern with
another shortwave trough coming in tonight and crossing the state
Monday for additional precipitation chances. Another, stronger wave
with MCS characteristics, will move through Monday night and while
it looks to impact mainly the north, it could generate some locally
heavy rain. Temperatures Monday will be similar to what will be seen
on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The long-term forecast period including the upcoming workweek into
early next weekend will be plagued by an unsettled pattern which
will keep POPs in forecast for each day to an extent, but each day
will not be a washout by any means. Upper lvl northwesterly flow and
a series of SWTs within the flow pattern will approach and move over
Arkansas. An upper ridge will build across the Southwestern region
of the CONUS keeping the stream of northwesterly flow positioned to
traverse over the Natural State throughout the period.

At the sfc, a cold front will be nearing the Arkansas/Missouri
border Tuesday night into the day on Wednesday. On Thursday, the
boundary becomes stationary positioned across northern Arkansas
before pushing through the state on Friday. On Saturday, you guessed
it, another cold front approaches Arkansas from the north. At the
sfc, similar to the upper lvls we will see a progressive pattern of
rain and isolated thunderstorm chances. It is to reiterated or
repeated that this will not be a five day washout, but rain/storms
will be possible each day across the CWA.

In regard to temperatures with respect to both low and high
temperatures will be near to slightly above average compared to
climatological normals for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Not expecting any precip through the afternoon/evening hours,
there will likely be an increase in coverage of RA/TS activity
from W-E by 03/12z. Afternoon CU will be in place today, it could
briefly provide cigs just below 3k ft at times. Expect more
widespread MVFR cigs by daybreak. Winds will be less than 10 kts,
generally out of the S-SE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  69  87  71 /   0   0  40  40
Camden AR         89  69  89  71 /  10   0  30  20
Harrison AR       86  66  83  68 /  10  20  50  40
Hot Springs AR    90  69  89  71 /   0  10  40  30
Little Rock   AR  91  71  89  73 /   0   0  40  30
Monticello AR     90  71  89  73 /  10   0  30  20
Mount Ida AR      90  69  88  71 /  10  10  40  30
Mountain Home AR  87  67  85  68 /  10  10  50  40
Newport AR        88  70  89  71 /   0   0  40  40
Pine Bluff AR     90  70  89  72 /   0   0  30  20
Russellville AR   90  70  88  71 /   0  10  40  30
Searcy AR         90  68  88  70 /   0   0  40  40
Stuttgart AR      90  72  89  73 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...67