570
FXUS64 KLZK 171943
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
243 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Convection has fired up this afternoon, in particular along what
appears to be a residual boundary stretching nearly E-W across north-
central Arkansas. Convection is showing very little movement at this
time. Storm cells are not persisting particularly long, but
continued redevelopment over the same aresas could produce locally
heavy runoff.

Aloft, a trof was quickly approaching the area from the west, and
was kicking out a few minor impulses riding over the area. The trof
should exit the area tomorrow and usher in a temporary reprieve from
precipitation. Satellite imagery shows a closed low circulation over
eastern OK, and this should move NE overnight into northern
Arkansas.

We have been fielding a lot of questions today about whether or not
there will be any rain tonight for outdoor graduation ceremonies,
and of course whether or not there is a risk for lightning.
Generallly speaking, quite a bit of the convection should start to
wane by early this evening, with some lingering past sunset...
although convection will likely linger and persist in the vicinity
of the boundary and the approaching closed low aloft.

Long story short, the greatest risk for having a graduation ceremony
rained out will be across the northern third of the state, although
I would not discount the potential for a rain-out across the central
third of the state as well. And while a few showers will affect
southern AR, those will likely diminish considerably by early this
evening.

After the trof exits to the east, shortwave ridging will take place.
The heat and humidity of summer is not that far away, and Sunday
highs will give a bit of a preview of what is to come...with
dewpoints in the 60`s and highs in the upper 80`s to the lower 90`s
in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

To begin the period, high pressure will control the weather pattern
as an upper level trough will be located across the Rocky Mountains.
By late Tuesday into Wednesday...surface high pressure will push off
to the east as a low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes
region. This low pressure system will bring a cold front across the
state by Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms possible.
Additional unsettled weather will be possible through at least
Thursday as another shortwave trough moves over the CWA.

It is still too early to mention specific details, but severe
weather chances are possible...although on the lower end as of this
forecast package. A big question regarding the severe weather
chances with the system on Wednesday will be what time of day the
storms move into the CWA.

Temperatures are expected to be on the warmer side through much of
the period. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Higher humidity will likely make temperatures feel slightly
warmer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  62  83  63 /  50  20  20   0
Camden AR         80  63  86  65 /  20  30  20   0
Harrison AR       72  59  82  60 /  60  30  10   0
Hot Springs AR    78  62  85  65 /  50  40  10   0
Little Rock   AR  79  65  85  67 /  60  50  20   0
Monticello AR     79  66  85  67 /  30  30  40   0
Mount Ida AR      78  60  85  63 /  50  40  10   0
Mountain Home AR  73  60  82  60 /  60  20  10   0
Newport AR        75  63  83  65 /  70  30  20   0
Pine Bluff AR     79  65  85  66 /  40  40  30   0
Russellville AR   76  62  85  64 /  60  40  10   0
Searcy AR         76  62  84  63 /  50  40  30   0
Stuttgart AR      77  66  83  67 /  50  50  40   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....73