961
FXUS64 KLZK 281853
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
153 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A daytime Cu field had developed this afternoon over roughly the
SE half of AR with high clouds noted along the I-30/Hwy 67/167
corridors. Temperatures around the state ranged from the mid 80s
to lower 90s. Through the remainder of today, on and off clouds
can be expected with high temperatures topping out in the lower to
mid 90s. Heat index values should remain near 100 degrees or
less.

Synoptically, an upper ridge was in place situated over portions of
TX with SW surface flow across AR between a surface low over the
Cntrl/Nrn Plains and a surface high along the E coast. Moisture
values in the lower atmosphere will really ramp up with temperatures
also on the increase. The combination of humid conditions with
temperatures well into the 90s will create heat index values between
105 to greater than 110 degrees. Given the expected heat indices, a
heat advisory is in place across portions of N-Cntrl/W, into SW
AR with excessive heat warnings in place across the remainder of
the CWA.

Heading into Sunday, a weak frontal boundary will drop into Nrn AR,
potentially Cntrl/S AR, with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms expected to develop along and ahead of the front.
Temperatures should range from the mid 80s over the Nrn third of the
state to lower and middle 90s over Cntrl and Srn AR. Heat headlines
may be needed for the Srn half of AR but for now given the
uncertainties with cloud cover, timing, and Swrd extent of
precip, will hold off for now.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A brief break from the heat will be noted across parts of Arkansas
on Monday as sfc ridging to the northeast builds in behind Sunday`s
cold front. This will provide slightly lower T/Td values for much of
the state. After that, the heat returns.

Hot and humid conditions will be noted across the state through much
of next week as H500 ridging remains parked over the region. This
includes daily high temperatures in the mid/upper 90s F with Td
values in the 60s/70s F. Most days will see at least portions of the
area requiring some sort of heat related headline due to heat
indices in excess of 105. HeatRisk values will primarily be around 3
(Major) for most locations.

There is some indication that by the mid to late week timeframe, the
mid-level ridge will elongate and be forced southward. At the sfc, a
cold front may sink south toward AR from the north. This combination
could provide rain chances and some relief from the heat, especially
across northern parts of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conds are expected through the period with daytime Cu and
passing high clouds noted. Winds will be SW/Srly at around 10 kts.
Winds will relax overnight, becoming SWrly again on Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  99  74  90 /   0  20  30  50
Camden AR         75  97  77  96 /   0   0  10  40
Harrison AR       75  98  72  86 /   0  30  50  50
Hot Springs AR    75  99  76  96 /   0  10  20  50
Little Rock   AR  77  99  79  94 /   0  10  20  50
Monticello AR     77  97  79  94 /   0   0  10  50
Mount Ida AR      74  97  74  94 /   0  10  20  50
Mountain Home AR  74  97  72  86 /  10  30  40  50
Newport AR        75  99  76  90 /   0  10  30  50
Pine Bluff AR     76  97  78  94 /   0   0  10  50
Russellville AR   75  99  77  93 /   0  10  30  60
Searcy AR         74  98  76  92 /   0  10  30  60
Stuttgart AR      77  97  79  91 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ004-005-014-
024-052-066>068-103-112-113-123-137-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-
237-240-241-313-340-341.

Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
ARZ006>008-015>017-025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057-062>065-069-
121-122-130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...70