416
FXUS64 KLZK 170535
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Unsettled weather has continued for much of the day with overcast
skies and on and off precipitation moving across large portions of
the state. As a result, temperatures have warmed very little across
the state through the day with afternoon temperatures in northern
Arkansas struggling to get out of the 60`s. Southern Arkansas has
seen the best warming of the day with temperatures warming into the
lower 80`s. Needless to say, temperatures are well below normal for
this time of year.

This afternoon and evening rain showers will continue. While no
location will see a washout, some light rain will be seen. Expect
rain chances to finally come to an end during the overnight
hours...however patchy fog will be possible with the best chance for
heavy fog being mainly across northwest portions of the CWA.wrk

Models are in agreement that Tuesday will be a dry day except in
extreme southern Arkansas. Rain chances will linger across the
southern border of the state through much of the day on Tuesday.
Models continue to hint at an upper level ridge to build into the
region towards the start of the long term with temperatures forecast
to warm back to near normal levels or above.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

90 degree weather will be back at the beginning of the extended
term, and although the 90 degree weather will give way to highs in
the 80`s after a few days, warm temperatures will prevail regardless.

The extended term beings with a narrow ridge across the central US,
built up between coastal trofs. With the ridge in place, 90 degree
weather will be back in place across the state.

By the weekend an upper low will begin to move up thru the four
corners region and lift over Missouri and into the upper midwest by
Monday. As the ridge weakens, daily highs will relax into the 80`s.

At the surface, a cold front will try to move into the northwest
part of the state over the late weekend into Monday. The models seem
content to stall out the front just outside the area, but this will
contribute to some rain chances starting on Saturday thru Monday,
primarily across the NW and northern portions of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Patchy fog and low ceilings continue at the northern terminals
resulting in IFR to occasional LIFR conditions which will persist
until after sunrise before improving. MVFR to VFR conditions are
expected elsewhere through the night. All terminals will become
VFR with time on Tuesday as moisture levels decreases and upper
level ridging begins to build in. Light east to northeast winds
will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  61  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         85  65  89  65 /  20   0   0   0
Harrison AR       83  61  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    87  65  89  66 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  87  66  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     86  66  89  65 /  10   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      86  63  89  63 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  85  61  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        84  60  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     86  64  87  64 /  10   0   0   0
Russellville AR   87  64  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         87  62  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      85  63  86  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...56