Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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012 FXUS64 KLZK 252329 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 629 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Latest data from KLZK radar indicate a few light returns from convective cells across Arkansas county. Conditions are quite unstable across the forecast area, with 100mb mixed layer CAPE values of >3500 indicated. Instability is maximized along and south of a warm frontal boundary, subjectively analyzed at 19z along I-40 from MEM to LIT to OKC. A number of different explicit CAM runs indicate strong convection will develop across Oklahoma and Kansas, then will move to the east and northeast. Some of this activity may affect areas along the Missouri border late tonight. A more distinct signal for convection to affect the forecast area appears for late Sunday and Sunday night, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This feature will initiate convection by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate all hazards all possible, with the greatest probabilities for these hazards to be across northeast sections of the forecast area. Dry conditions are expected for Monday, as a much drier air mass moves into the forecast area. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Not seeing any significant changes this afternoon versus what is in the current forecast/grids and a lot of value added changes will not be forthcoming. Model consensus continues to show a pattern that is much quieter than what has been seen of late with just low end rain chances and a blend of guidance will be used. Period initiates with upper ridge over the Rockies and subsequently broad downstream troughing over the Great Lakes resulting in NW flow over the forecast area. Low pressure passing well to the north will drag a back door cold front across the region Tuesday night and Wednesday with a return to NE surface winds and relatively drier air. Upper ridge does pass to the north mid week with upper flow becoming more quasi zonal in response. Several weak upper level impulses move through the prevailing flow through the period for low end POPS. Best chances of rain may be Tuesday night into early Wednesday as models look to move a decaying MCS through the southwest half of the state with the GFS a bit more on the aggressive side. There does however remain differences in the guidance with these waves and will just keep the low end POPS that are in place. Temperatures will average a degree or two below average early in the period before creeping up a little bit as the period progresses and a warm front begins to advance from the south. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 CU field wl dissipate for the most part early this evening with the loss of aftn heating. Higher lvl clouds wl cont to incrs fm the west, assocd with ongoing convection acrs OK. CAMS cont to show a complex of storms skirting the MO/AR border late tngt into early Sun, with PROB30 groups mentioned at KHRO and KBPK. Otherwise, VFR conds are expected thru most of the PD. Some low clouds are progged to affect parts of central and south AR arnd daybreak Sun, with MVFR conds possible at times. && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....57 AVIATION...44