496
FXUS64 KLZK 300501
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1201 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Latest regional radar data indicate scattered light returns,
partially aloft, across mainly southwest sections of the state. A
few stronger returns were noted, approaching from eastern
Oklahoma. All of the mentioned activity appear to be supported by
a MCV, approaching from eastern Oklahoma.

The MCV will continue eastward for at least several more hours,
before dissipating. Western sections of the forecast area will be
monitored for any convective systems that may approach from the
plains.

Support for such convective systems will increase during the rest
of the forecast period. Several of these could affect the forecast
area. Forecasts will continue to reflect uncertainties with
regard to timing of these systems.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Relatively little has changed since the thinking yesterday.
A progressive upper level pattern will continue thru the extended
term. Arkansas will largely remain in a warm and moist airmass at
the surface, and aloft numerous shortwaves will move across the
area.

As a result, showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
for portions of the state thru the entire period. While the overall
trend for severe weather has been on the downswing, I am still a
little concerned about some of the afternoons where models have very
high levels of instability forecast with an approaching shortwave.

Like the models from yesterday, there is a trend toward ridging
developing to the west during the period just beyond the extended
term. This would put Arkansas at the eastern edge of the ridge. If
this comes to fruition, Arkansas will likely see a period of more
summer-like conditions, with very warm and humid weather and lower
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

All terminals will remain in VFR flight category in terms of CIGS
and VSBY from early Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon.
Thursday evening into late Thursday evening a complex of showers and
thunderstorms will be approaching Arkansas impacting the western
terminals earlier in the evening before impacting the remainder of
sites near the early morning hours on Friday. The western and
southeastern sites of KHOT, KADF, KPBF, and KLLQ may see CIGS drop
to MVFR as the complex of storms approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     80  63  79  67 /  10  20  50  70
Camden AR         82  65  81  66 /  30  30  70  60
Harrison AR       79  62  75  62 /  10  30  70  60
Hot Springs AR    81  65  80  65 /  30  40  70  70
Little Rock   AR  82  67  82  68 /  20  40  60  70
Monticello AR     82  67  85  68 /  30  30  50  60
Mount Ida AR      80  64  79  64 /  30  40  80  70
Mountain Home AR  79  62  76  64 /  10  20  60  70
Newport AR        81  65  82  67 /  10  20  40  70
Pine Bluff AR     82  67  83  68 /  20  30  60  70
Russellville AR   81  66  79  66 /  10  40  70  70
Searcy AR         81  64  80  66 /  10  30  50  70
Stuttgart AR      81  67  83  69 /  20  30  50  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...74