192
FXUS64 KLZK 290540
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1240 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Recent observations indicate mid and high clouds covering the
southern half of the forecast area. This cloud cover is in
association with a MCS not moving southward across southeast Texas
and southwest Louisiana.  Near normal temperatures prevailed across
the forecast area.

Several smaller and less intense complexes were noted in north
central Oklahoma, and central Kansas. These systems were moving to
the south and southeast, along the edge of an instability ridge, in
a northwesterly upper flow.

During this period, a number of additional system are expected to
develop in this pattern.  The main forecast challenge is to attempt
to focus a potential for any of these future systems to affect the
forecast area.  Overall, expect precipitation chances to increase
during this period, from west to east. Forecasts will reflect timing
uncertainties, yet will reflect the increasing confidence in
overall precipitation potential.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Very progressive upper level pattern will continue over the
continental US during the extended term. Numerous shortwaves will
zip across the area, bringing periods of cloudiness and
precipitation. Toward the end of the extended term, models are
trying to build up a ridge across the western half of the country,
placing Arkansas at the eastern edge of the ridge. If this develops,
I would expect a period of drier and warmer weather.

At the surface, the extended term begins with high pressure over the
Great Lakes region, which will allow a warm front to push northward
across the state on Saturday as the high slides to the east.

Southerly surface flow will remain dominant thru the remainder of
the period, which should keep warm and humid Gulf air over the area.

I am keeping a watch on a few different periods in the extended term
where strong to severe storms may be possible. In particular, it
appears that Monday afternoon thru the evening could result in a
very unstable airmass across the region. With a shortwave likely
approaching during that time frame...I would consider this to be a
likely candidate for severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. Mid-day to afternoon
SHRA/isolated TSRA are possible across AR on Wed, but this activity
should wind down towards sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
Winds will be light out of the E and SE through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     80  61  77  61 /  40  20  20  10
Camden AR         84  65  80  65 /  60  30  40  20
Harrison AR       77  58  76  59 /  50  10  20  20
Hot Springs AR    81  63  79  64 /  60  30  30  20
Little Rock   AR  84  66  79  65 /  50  30  30  20
Monticello AR     87  66  81  66 /  50  30  40  20
Mount Ida AR      80  63  79  63 /  70  30  30  30
Mountain Home AR  78  58  76  59 /  40  10  10  20
Newport AR        81  63  79  63 /  30  20  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     85  65  80  65 /  50  30  30  20
Russellville AR   81  63  78  63 /  60  20  20  20
Searcy AR         83  62  77  61 /  40  30  20  20
Stuttgart AR      83  66  79  65 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...70