289
FXUS64 KMAF 161017
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
517 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

WV imagery shows the exiting upper trough approaching the MS Valley
this morning, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to the
whims of the ridge.

As such, thicknesses are forecast to jump today as the ridge
strengthens in the trough`s wake, adding ~ 3 F or so onto
yesterday`s highs.  A fairly extensive Heat Advisory is in effect
for this, mainly along/west of the Pecos, and this seems to cover
anticipated highs well.  A weak dryline is forecast to sharpen up
mid-CWA during the afternoon, and best chances for convection look
to be diurnally-driven activity from the Davis Mountains down beyond
the border.  Shear looks marginal, but dry subcloud layers could
result in a wind threat.  In addition, mid-level lapse rates in
excess of 8 C/km will be widespread, for big hail as well.

Tonight, this activity should diminish to the south during the
evening.  A 50+kt LLJ is forecast, inhibiting radiational cooling
despite mostly clear skies, providing little relief from the heat as
overnight lows average ~ 7-9 F above normal.

Monday, temperatures look very similar to today`s, warranting a heat
advisory similar to today`s as well.  Isolated afternoon convection
is expected in the Davis Mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Into Monday night, the trough to the west begins to lift to the
north and move east. At the same time, a ridge over the southeast US
shifts northward and allows a trough with tropical moisture to move
in across from South Texas. With increasing moisture and decreasing
heights, temperatures trend below normal after Tuesday with highs in
the low 90s for most by Wednesday afternoon. Guidance continues to
suggest PWATs between 1.5" to nearly 2" encroaching over the eastern
half of the CWA during the middle of the coming week. How much rain
and where it falls will be dependent on where the aforementioned
trough positions itself over the course of Thursday and Friday. For
now, will stick with the NBM solution that puts higher PoPs across
the Big Bend and over the Davis Mountains, but it remains possible
that a majority of the rain could end up further north and east.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Return flow continues, gusty
at times during the afternoon, w/forecast soundings developing a
fairly widespread cu field, w/bases ~ 6-11 kft AGL. A 50+kt LLJ
tonight will keep return flow elevated throughout the night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              100  75  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                106  72 106  71 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                  101  74  99  74 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton           105  74 103  73 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           98  70  97  70 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                   100  70 101  69 /   0  10   0  10
Marfa                    99  62 100  64 /  20  10  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     99  74  98  73 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   99  74  99  74 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                    106  75 107  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central Brewster County-
     Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio
     Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...44