527
FXUS64 KMAF 201730
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Tropical Storm Alberto will make landfall in Mexico later this
morning and bring a plume of tropical moisture through Mexico and
into West Texas and SE NM. Low clouds and widespread showers will be
the name of the game through the day today with a majority of the
rainfall south of the I-10 corridor. SE NM and the Permian Basin
will see markedly less rain overall, but should still see something
measurable(>=0.01") when all is said and done. Across Terrell and
Brewster counties amounts look to top our between a half inch to
an inch with locally higher amounts due to terrain influences or
training of showers. With overcast skies and intermittent rain,
highs struggle to reach the low 80s for most with 70s in the
higher elevations.

Expect showers to continue on and off overnight tonight as the bulk
of the moisture moves to the northwest into southern New Mexico.
Morning lows end up in the 60s to low 70s for most. Decreasing
showers and clouds on Friday allow temperatures to rebound back into
the upper 80s to low 90s for most. The highest chances for rain
Friday afternoon will be confined to the higher elevations and to
areas to the west with little, if any precipitation expected across
the Permian Basin.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The extended forecast is rather pedestrian, as all the interesting
weather is front-loaded in the short term.

Friday, a flat, upper ridge is forecast to cover the southern CONUS,
centered just above the ArklaTex.  This feature will be in the
process of developing WSW, arriving over New Mexico Saturday night
or so, and remaining there through the extended.  The net result of
this will be a gradual increase in temperatures each day, with highs
pulling above normal again by Tuesday afternoon.  Temperatures peak
Wednesday as highs top out ~ 7-9 F above normal.
Thicknesses/temperatures come down a bit Thursday.  W/this in mind,
heat advisories will return as soon as Monday.

With respect to convection, prospects look slim-to-none under the
ridge, and confined to diurnally-driven activity over the higher
terrain, if that.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Widespread MVFR ceilings with some embedded IFR ceilings in -SHRA
and visibilities between 3-5SM in BR will prevail across all area
terminals through at least 21/00Z. Moisture from the remnants of
Tropical Depression "Alberto" will continue to stream over west
Texas and southeastern New Mexico overnight, leading to a high
confidence in IFR ceilings developing during the early morning
hours Friday. Expect a slow improvement in ceilings to MVFR around
21/15Z or so. Winds will remain easterly to southeasterly in the
10 to 15 knot range, decreasing some overnight, then picking up
again into the 10 to 15 knot range before noon Friday. -bc

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  92  70  95 /  30   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 70  88  68  92 /  80  30   0   0
Dryden                   71  86  70  88 /  80  30  10   0
Fort Stockton            70  88  69  92 /  80  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           64  80  65  87 /  80  50  10   0
Hobbs                    67  87  66  92 /  60  10   0   0
Marfa                    62  84  59  88 /  80  40  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     70  89  70  92 /  40   0   0   0
Odessa                   71  89  70  92 /  40   0   0   0
Wink                     72  92  72  95 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...93