241
FXUS64 KMAF 161922
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
222 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VIS and IR Sat show a few high clouds over western portions of the
area moving northeast. Skies are expected to remain mostly clear
today with surface high pressure over south-central Texas, with a
stray shower or storm possible in the vicinity of the Davis
Mountains into the Upper Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau. High
temperatures today continue the above average trend, although only 3
to 6 degrees above average and rising into the 80s and 90s. Tonight,
a LLJ will develop and advect in moisture into the area, with 60
degree dew point temperatures extending up along the Pecos River
into the SE NM plains, with 50 degree dew point temperatures
elsewhere. Lows nearly 10 degrees above average  are forecast, 60s
with 70s over the eastern Permian Basin, along the Pecos River, and
near the Rio Grande.

Tomorrow, a trough currently over the west coast is on track in
deterministic and ensembles to develop northeast into the northern
Rockies. In advance of this trough, thicknesses will increase and
result in temperatures warmer than today, 5 to 10 degrees above
average in the 90s, 80s over higher elevations, with continued
upslope flow ahead of a developing prefrontal trough across the SE
NM plains into westernmost portions of SW TX. This synoptic setup
yields deep-layer shear of 35-45 kts over the area, which has not
been seen here for a while and will help organize and maintain
updrafts in any storms that do form. Mid-level lapse rates will be
steepest to the northwest of the CWA, so hail risk is not currently
expected to be a major concern in any stronger storms that develop.
Inverted-v soundings in models associated with dry subcloud layers
over SE NM plains into the Upper Trans Pecos indicate damaging
outflow winds could be a concern in the strongest storms. SPC has a
marginal risk to the north of Lea and Eddy Counties Tuesday, so
widespread severe is not anticipated, especially considering
stronger height falls and large scale ascent aiding storm
development will occur farther north over the Central into Northern
Great Plains.

Tuesday night, lows will remain above average, and with increased
clouds limiting radiational cooling, around 10 to 12 degrees warmer
than normal, with 70s over most of the Permian Basin, Stockton
Plateau, and Rio Grande, and 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

By the middle of the week, a broad trough remains in place across
the western CONUS, with ridging from the southern Great Plains to
the Midwest, and an upper-low over the Southeast. This pattern
finally begins to break down as we head through the remainder of the
week into the weekend. This may allow for cooler temperatures and
rain chances by the end of the period, but let`s start from the
beginning.

With the above pattern in place, temperatures continue their above
normal trend with most locations in the upper 80s and low 90s on
Wednesday. Mild nights remain with upper 60s and low 70s offering
limiting relief. A glancing shortwave trough may be enough for an
isolated shower or thunderstorm across the far northern reaches of
the area, though elsewhere continues the dry spell. Thursday is
expected to have similar conditions, though temperatures may be a
touch warmer and rain is out of the question.

Friday into this weekend, a secondary shortwave rounds the larger
trough across the West. This feature begins to slowly translate east
across the Southwest. This won`t initially aid temperatures, which
remain largely the same, but the influx of ascent and moisture
should allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms each day through
the weekend. Once this trough finally ejects across the Great Plains
late this weekend or early next week, a cold front may impinge on
the region. This hopefully returns temperatures to closer to normal
with perhaps further rain chances. The exact timing and details
remain uncertain, but confidence in this overall pattern progression
is high. Stay tuned for all the details later this week.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Southeast winds will be gusty at terminals from 18Z today into
02Z-04Z Tuesday, after which winds will decrease at terminals
before increasing again at HOB, INK, and MAF by 12Z-14Z Tuesday.
We cannot rule out a stray shower or storm this evening over the
Stockton Plateau into the Upper Trans Pecos, but chances of
showers or storms occurring at any terminals are low and so were
not mentioned in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  93  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 68  93  67  95 /   0  20  20  10
Dryden                   70  93  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            69  94  71  97 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           65  85  65  87 /  10  20  20  10
Hobbs                    65  90  67  94 /   0  10  20  20
Marfa                    62  89  65  92 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     69  91  72  94 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   70  91  72  94 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     71  96  74  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...91