006
FXUS64 KMAF 151944
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
244 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

We continue to monitor satellite this afternoon as Cu develops
across portions of Lea County south into the Trans Pecos. Hi-res
models indicate this is an area of potential convective development
over the next few hours. High levels of moisture at the surface and
intense afternoon heating has allowed for a conditionally unstable
environment across the eastern half of the area. A couple of storms
could go severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main
threats. These storms will slide east into the Permian Basin, but
weak flow aloft will keep them from making it too far.

A breezy, mild night is expected with rain chances diminishing
before midnight. Sunday looks like another hot one with highs back
near 100 or above for most locations. Will issue a Heat Advisory for
the western half of the area which will likely be extended into
Monday. There will be another shot at some isolated storms,
though mostly confined to the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Come Monday, the upper pattern remains largely stagnant across our
region with a large upper trough across the western US, a ridge
across the eastern US, and a separate segment of ridging across
northern Mexico and Baja. The weakness between these two areas of
ridging allows an inverted trough to push into Texas mid-week
steered by the eastern US ridge. While Monday/Tuesday features more
relatively quiet and hot days with afternoon storms limited to the
Davis Mountains, this inverted trough could bring an appreciable
pattern change for the second half of the week. At the very least,
this feature will bring in plenty of rich low-mid level moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico which should also dampen high temperatures
some as well. As far as how much precipitation could result from
this, the strength/location of the trough will be pivotal into how
expansive rainfall could be and there remains uncertainty both model
to model but also run to run. The range of possibilities could still
be anywhere from some additional showers/t`storms in the Davis` to
more widespread rain showers stretching into the Permian Basin.
Still, the main takeaways from today`s trends for the late-week rain
is that Thursday looks to bring the best chance for rain, with
locations along/south of I-10 likely seeing the highest rainfall
totals. With added clouds/rain chances, high temperatures will be
limited into the 80s for most on Thursday/Friday, returning back
into the 90s for the weekend.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR through the period with gusty south to southeast winds. A few
storms are possible this afternoon, but uncertainty in timing and
location will prevent the inclusion in current TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75 100  74 100 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 70 106  72 106 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   75 101  74 100 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            74 105  74 104 /  10  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           70  98  69  97 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                    69 101  69 102 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                    63 100  62  99 /  10  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     75  99  74  99 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   75  99  75 100 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     75 106  77 106 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Chinati
     Mountains-Davis Mountains-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
     Sunday for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
     Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern
     Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster
     County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...29